650
FXUS63 KMPX 011143
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
643 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After today, temperatures for the next week will run a few
  degrees above normal, with only minor rain chances expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

The upper low that brought us a dreary Halloween is now over
northeast Iowa. This has ended the majority of the precipitation for
us, though enough moisture may linger in southeast and south central
MN to drive a light rain/sprinkle chance into the afternoon. It`s
now November, so it shouldn`t be a surprise that the stratus field
in the wake of the upper low is expansive. As a result, we are
expecting cloudy skies today, which will hold highs back into the
low to mid 40s.

For the rest of the forecast, we`ll have a rather wavy flow. This
will result in frontal passages Sunday evening, Tuesday night,
Thursday night, and again Saturday. This will keep is in a rather
mild Pacific airmass as well, so in a week that sees our average
highs sink into the 40s, we`ll see highs in the 50s. As for
precipitation chances, the first front will come with a pretty
strong jet streak punching in behind it across the Dakotas. On the
nose of this jet streak should be enough lift to generate some light
rain showers Sunday evening, with the highest chances in eastern MN
and western WI. The ECMWF/EPS continues to be most bullish with this
rain chance, with CAMs that go out that far rather lacking in their
precip coverage in the MPX area. The bigger impact with this front
will be its winds out ahead of it for Sunday. The strongest pressure
gradient and winds on Sunday will be over northern MN, but we still
look to see some wind gusts up around 30 mph on Sunday ahead of the
front. The upper wave driving the front Tuesday night will be going
way off to our north, so this front should come through dry. For the
later two fronts, the upper vorticity driving them will be farther
south, such that we may be able to see some more light rain out
them, though at this point there`s still a good deal of spread on
the amplitude and impact to sensible weather with these last two
waves. However, the one for next weekend does at least show
potential for spinning up a stronger low pressure system.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 633 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

A few drops of light rain continue across eastern MN and western
WI within the moist cyclonic flow around the upper low that is
now safely in eastern Iowa. Coverage is too sparse to include
any -RA in the TAFs, but you can`t rule out an occasional bout
of rain at MKT/MSP/RNH/EAU through the morning. Cigs are at
their lowest right now and will really start to improve this
afternoon as the upper low moves farther away. Overnight, we
should see some clearing as the ridge axis moves through,
helping setup southerly winds that will already be sustained at
over 10 kts by the end of this period in western MN.

KMSP...An occasional bout of light rain will continue to be
possible through 16z, though no vis restriction are expected if
it does rain. In the last 30 minutes, we`ve seen cigs jump up to
around 2k feet, though based on upstream obs, 1000 to 1500 foot
cigs can`t be ruled out through the morning. Moving ahead to the
end of the period Sunday morning, we`ll be seeing some gusty
south/southwest winds develop as mixing deepens, by 18z Sunday,
we could have gusts pushing 30 kts in a direction that will be
becoming an increasingly cross-wind for the main parallels.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind SSW 15-20G30kts.
MON...VFR. Wind WNW 10-15kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...MPG