Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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260
FXUS63 KMPX 262050
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
350 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A VERY WAVY E-W STNRY FRONT EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL CO THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...OVER THE MISS/OH RIVER
VALLEY REGIONS...TO OVER THE NY/NJ/CT TRI-STATE AREA. PLENTY OF
SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER MO/IL ON INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLC
REGION...WHILE THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY AREA IS STILL UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SRN FRINGES OF CENTRAL CANADA HIGH PRES.
ALOFT...A N-S RIDGE AXIS PASSING ACRS THE MISS RIVER THIS EVE WILL
SHIFT OFF TO THE E WHILE A SHARP DEEP TROF OVER THE ROCKIES PIVOTS
AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS TROF TRANSLATES
EWD...IT WILL ENHANCE A SFC LOW OVER CO/KS WHILE A TRAILING SFC
TROF EXTENDING NWD FROM THE PARENT LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE WFO MPX CWFA OVERNIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE AGAIN SLOWED THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE
RAIN SO HAVE SHOWN A MORE DELAYED ADVANCE OF THE HIGHER POPS FROM
W TO E ACRS THE CWFA ON WED. LOW-TO-MIDLVL ELY FLOW ON THE SRN
FRINGES OF THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL ALSO TRY TO SLOW DOWN THE
ADVANCE OF THE RAIN... BUT THE LARGE TROF ALOFT PLUS THE DEEP
MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE S WILL STEADILY
WIN OUT...WITH MUCH OF THE CWFA BY LATE DAY TMRW EXPECTED TO BE
UNDER LIGHT-MOD RAIN. INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED DUE TO BEING
ON THE N SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STNRY FRONT SO ASIDE FROM
POSSIBLY SOME ISOLD TSTMS NEAR THE IA BORDER...TSTMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. DUE TO THE MORE ISENTROPIC
NATURE OF THE LIFT...EXPANSIVE RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH
EFFICIENCY...PRODUCING QPF/S IN THE 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH RANGE BY
TOMORROW AFTN...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER SWRN MN. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THE CLOUD/RAIN COMPLICATIONS WILL KEEP DIURNALS
FAIRLY SMALL. WHILE MIN TEMPS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING AND WHAT IS
FORECAST TONIGHT ARE NEAR NORMAL...HIGHS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AFTN ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

A WET AND COOL PATTERN REMAINS THE MAIN WEATHER THEME IN THE LONG
TERM. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE SECOND IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS WEEK LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF US
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS ANOTHER SLOW MOVER AND WILL
FINALLY SLIDE EAST OF US BY THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS LIKELY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IT WILL BE QUITE COOL ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S. THIS IS SOME 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. RAIN AMOUNTS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER END AMOUNTS FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON EAST AND
SOUTH. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER IN CENTRAL MN AND ADJOINING AREAS
OF WEST CENTRAL WI WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH.

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY.
IT WILL BE A CHANCE TO DO SOME MOWING BEFORE A THIRD LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS MUCH OF THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE WERE SOME
CHANGES NOTED TODAY WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WITH SUNDAY PERHAPS
NOT BEING A TOTAL WASHOUT. THE CULPRIT IS ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER
LOW HEADING OUR WAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THIS SYSTEM REACHES INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN U.S. THIS ENDS UP SHEARING OUR SYSTEM APART ON SUNDAY WITH
A DRYING TREND NOTED FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS CERTAINLY WAS NOT THE
CASE A MODEL RUN OR TWO AGO...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
EMBRACED THIS TREND TODAY. RAIN AMOUNTS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY FAVOR SOUTHWEST MN WITH A HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH
WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH HEADING NORTH AND EAST. CENTRAL MN
AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL WI HAVE THE LOWER END AMOUNTS.

A DRYING TREND IS NOTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A CUT-OFF LOW FORMS
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY WILL
REACH VALUES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK IN MAY (MIDDLE
60S).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE THROUGH THIS EVE...
EVENTUALLY REACHING VFR LEVELS DURING THE EARLY MRNG HOURS. THOUGH
THE LOWER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT...BKN/OVC UPR LEVELS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY TMRW. FOR MN TAF SITES...LOWER BKN/OVC
DECKS WILL RETURN BY MIDDAY TOMORROW IN ADVANCE OF A SFC TROUGH
SHIFTING THRU THE DAKOTAS. -SHRA LOOKS TO HOLD OFF FOR MOST SITES
THRU 18Z TMRW...BUT KAXN-KSTC-KRWF MAY EXPERIENCE SOME MVFR-VSBY
-SHRA BY THEN. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 060-080 DIRECTION WITH
SPEEDS GRADUALLY INCREASING TO ARND 15G25KT BY LATE MRNG TMRW.

KMSP...SLOW CLIMB OUT OF MVFR RANGE AS VFR CONDS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE REALIZED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. COULD SEE CEILINGS INCRS
ABOVE 1700FT BY THIS EVE...BUT SOLID NE WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE 12S
IN PLAY THROUGHOUT THIS SET. VFR EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING PUSH WED
MRNG...BUT CHANCES ARE GROWING FOR MVFR -RA TO DEVELOP BY MID-TO-
LATE AFTN TMRW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...-SHRA WITH MVFR LIKELY...MAINLY EARLY. WIND E 10-15 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA WITH MVFR CONDS. WIND E 10-15 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JPC



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