Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 101754
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1154 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

.updated for 18z aviation discussion below...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 413 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

Models have at long last come into pretty decent agreement with
the placement of the band of heavy snow tonight. The only question
remaining is whether we`ll see enough 6 inch reports to justify a
warning issuance, or whether an advisory will do. It would be
preferable to look at some hi-res guidance before making that
call, but even the NAM and GFS hammer a narrow area (about only a
county wide) with 6 to 9 inches. Therefore, kept the watch in
place for the remaining area at risk allowing the day shift to
reassess things later this morning when the RAP, HRRR, and HopWRF
begin providing input. The rest of the area has been upgraded to
an advisory with a general 1 to 3 inches, the gusty winds leading
to some blowing snow, and the potential for a flash freeze with
plummeting temperatures following the cold front tonight.

Highs today will reach the upper 30s to mid 40s. Temperatures are
already in the lower 40s at Canby and Madison. Tomorrow`s highs
will be in the low single digits there, a solid 40-45 degree
drop.

Low clouds and fog are lifting north into Minnesota and western
Wisconsin, which should linger through the day and evening. Will
need to watch how low visibilities drop this morning for the
possible need for a Dense Fog Advisory across southern MN.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 413 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

The mean upper trough will re-establish itself across the eastern
1/2 of the nation over the weekend, and through the middle of
next week. This leads to the continued surge of cold arctic air
moving southward, with below normal temperatures.

In addition to the colder air,  there will be two systems that
brush the Upper Midwest, and provide a chance of light snow,
possibly some light accumulation. The first will affect mainly
west central and southwest Minnesota where a light dusting, up to
an inch is possible Friday night/Saturday morning. The next system
will affect most of Minnesota, and western Wisconsin late Sunday,
and into Monday morning. Due to the colder temperatures
associated with these systems, snowfall ratios will be high, with
20-1 or 25-1 a likely scenario. This means that any small amount
of QPF could lead to a light dusting, or even an inch of two. This
type of snow will also be easily blown around, so blowing snow
will be a concern, as gusty winds develop along and behind it.

By the middle of next week, the mean upper ridge that will be
centered across western North America, will break down some and
allow for a brief warm up late next week. It maybe similar to the
warmer pattern we have today with highs rising back above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

IFR periodic LIFR cigs/vsbys expected to continue through much of
the period with incoming frontal system. Appears KAXN will see
precipitation first this evening and it could be a brief mix
through about 03z and then change rapidly to -sn. This will spread
east with the front and upper trough and bring some light snow to
the remainder of the MN TAF sites through 12z. A mix will develop
into the KEAU area overnight before changing over the moderate to
perhaps heavy snow for a time into Thu morning. The heavier snows
will likely occur in a band from near KAEL-KRGK-KEAU. Strong and
gusty northwest winds developing behind front with some BLSN
possible into southern MN into western WI where significant snow
develops.

KMSP...

Expect mainly IFR cigs through the period. We will likely see some
fog move in toward sunset and move out with fropa around 06z.
Could see some -dz/mist with the thicker fog ahead of the front
but we should see any possible freezing potential and change to
snow after 09z. Expect snow through the morning with rates nearing
1/2 inch an hour possible. Snowfall through the morning of around
2 inches forecasted at this time.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

Fri night...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind NW 5 kts.
Sun...MVFR possible with -sn. Wind S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST
     Thursday for WIZ014.

     Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Thursday afternoon
     for WIZ015-016-023>028.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST
     Thursday for MNZ041>045-047>069-073>076-082-083.

     Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Thursday afternoon
     for MNZ070-077-078-084-085-091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...DWE



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