Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 300406 AAB
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1106 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

A FEW LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI WERE ABLE TO SNEAK OUT
SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN AND
BRING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN...MAINLY NEAR THE I-90
CORRIDOR. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60...WHICH IS AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR
LATE APRIL.

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN EARLIER IT THE WEEK HAS
NOW MOVED EASTWARD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE LOCATED OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLE WILL BRING CIRRUS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST FROM THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION...A BAND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF OF RAIN WITH THIS BAND...AND
TRIED TO REFLECT THAT BY TIGHTENING UP THE POP GRID. THERE IS NO
INSTABILITY...SO ONLY HAVE RAIN AS THE WEATHER TYPE. FORECAST
AMOUNTS OF A HALF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE LONG I-90...WITH NOTHING
EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM THE TWIN CITIES TO EAU
CLAIRE WI.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH GRADUALLY BUILDING HEIGHTS EARLY TO MIDDLE NEXT WEEK WITH
A RIDGE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US CONUS.

A LINGERING SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY AND
DESCRIBED IN THE SHORT TERM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA AND HELP KEEP THE AREA
DRY. THE 29.12Z GFS DROPS A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY-
MONDAY NIGHT AND IT PRODUCES A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...THE NAM HAS A
SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT THE ECMWF IS MUCH FARTHER WEST WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND IS BASICALLY DRY LOCALLY THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING...LITTLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY.
THE FRONT WILL...HOWEVER...SLOW THE WARMING TREND AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL...RATHER THAN CLIMBING UP INTO THE 70S.
LOOKS LIKE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN WILL LIFT NORTH
INTO FAR SOUTHERN MN SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD MISS ALL OF THE TAF
LOCATIONS. INCREASING EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS INTO THE
20-30 KT RANGE WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN SATURDAY.

KMSP...ANY CU WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER 00Z. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD WILL INCREASE SATURDAY...BUT RAIN WILL REMAIN SOUTH. EAST
NORTHEAST WIND 10-20 KT AND GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KT ALSO EXPECTED
SATURDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND NNE AT 10G15KT.
MON...VFR. WIND NW AT 10KT.
TUE...VFR. WIND WNW AT 10G20KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF



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