Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 160811
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
311 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Early morning surface analysis shows high pressure sitting atop the
Upper Mississippi River Valley with a cold front sagging south of
the region, from the Great Lakes through central Iowa then
northwestward through Montana. A secondary cold front, more
important to the midweek weather, has come onshore the Pacific
Northwest. Aloft, A large dome of high pressure is aligned from the
Dakotas to Texas with longwave trough axes on the east and west
CONUS coasts. While the center of the ridge in the deep south is
expected to remain in place through Monday morning, the axis of high
pressure will pivot to take on a more SW-NE orientation as it shifts
across the area through tomorrow. At the surface, the high pressure
area will shift east into the Great Lakes and southeastern Canada
during the day today. At the same time, the cold front out west will
cross the Northern Rockies through this afternoon then shift into
the central Dakotas by daybreak Monday morning. Despite the approach
of the cold front, the deep high pressure will keep the area dry and
also slightly cooler on the backside of the first departing cold
front. Highs will run 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday with
dewpoints around 10 degrees less, making for a much more pleasant
day. Plenty of sunshine is expected today with a few passing clouds,
then skies are expected to clear out tonight with high pressure
maintaining its influence.

One noteworthy item: the Space Weather Prediction Center has
maintained its G2 forecast (moderate geomagnetic storm watch) due to
a coronal mass ejection (solar flare) expected to arrive tonight.
The lack of cloud cover tonight in conjunction with the CME arrival
may likely make for good viewing conditions for the expected aurora
borealis.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

The western conus ridge breaks briefly into MN Monday and then
flattens leaving the area close to baroclinic zone/quasi-
stationary front across southern MN into at least midweek. This
leave the area vulnerable to periods of heavy rain and severe
weather.

Monday looks to be hot with a frontal system off to the northwest
of the cwa through the day. Heights at 500mb rise to around 590
decameters into southern MN and this should provide some capping
ahead of the front. With 925 mb temepratures around 30c...some
100 degree readings not out of the question to the far west out
ahead of the incoming front. We dont expect too much in the way of
convection developing with just a small chance over the northwest
cwa mainly after 21z Mon. Severe weather will be a possibility as
at least scattered convection develops along the front into
Monday night, affecting mainly the west and northern cwa. The main
threats being hail and damaging winds.

The front sags into southern MN Tuesday night and the area will
continue to be under the threat of severe weather and locally
heavy rain with PW`s increasing to over 1.5 inches. Both the ECMWF
and the GFS bring a short wave across the region during the day
Tuesday and which should help maintain the threat of storms during
the period. This will likely limit temperatures some as well.

Wednesday and Wednesday night look like another busy weather day
with severe weather remaining a threat and a continuing heavy rain
signal from both the GFS and ECMWF. Both models trend another
short wave into the area with the GFS driving it east across the
area about 6 hours faster. The ECMWF brings the better shot of
thunder and rain mainly Wednesday night across southern MN with
the GFS moving it slowly through during the day Wednesday and
continuing over the south into Wednesday night. PWs rise to 2.5
inches on the GFS with the NAEFS showing a 2 to 3 Standardized
anomaly over the southern third of the state into Wednesday. This
looks to be he greatest threat for more organized heavy rain with
some 3 plus totals not out of the question.

The models then drive the front south of the area into Thursday
which should provide a mainly dry period into Thursday night. The
flow remains more westerly into the weekend with the longer term
models driving another frontal system through the area Saturday
or Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 934 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

High pressure will drift across the region through the period,
with winds veering through time and return flow beginning to setup
toward the end of the period.

KMSP...No specific concerns at this time.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

Monday...VFR. South wind 10 to 20 kt.
Monday night...VFR. Southwest wind 10 to 20 kt.
Tuesday...MVFR possible with a chance of showers and thunderstorms
in the afternoon. Southwest wind 10 to 20 kt becoming west 5 to 10
kt.
Tuesday night...MVFR possible with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Variable wind less than 10 kt.
Wednesday...MVFR possible with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Southeast wind 5 to 15 kt.
Wednesday night...MVFR possible with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. East wind 5 to 15 kt.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...



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