Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 102057
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
257 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 254 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

An active short term period ahead with incoming winter weather into
the region.

The main changes to the forecast include an additional movement
eastward of the band, although it was not a drastic change. The
snow band looks to setup from near Albert Lea through Menomonie and
Ladysmith.  4-7" of snowfall looks like a good bet in that area.
Farther west, much lower amounts are expected due to the tight
gradient of the snow band.

As the forecast has shown, two main areas of snow are expected with
this system.  The first will be across northern MN beginning this
afternoon/evening, and the second will be across southeastern MN
through western WI. The hi-res ARW and NMM were outliers today,
bringing several inches of snow to the metro.  Discarded those
solutions as the overwhelming majority continued to show the snow
band from SE MN through western WI.  The highest snow amounts within
the band are still somewhat in question, but at this time we feel
that this band should produce a strip of 4-7" of snowfall.  When
combined with windy conditions and timing with the Thursday morning
commute, collaborated with neighboring offices to issue a Winter
Storm Warning for this band of highest impacts.

Farther west (including the metro), we simply will fall in between
two sources of forcing for precipitation.  Have lowered snowfall
amounts accordingly in the metro as the band to our east will have a
tight gradient and confidence has increased that it will indeed fall
primarily east of the metro.  However, those traveling along I-35
through southern MN and I-90 across southern and southeast MN will
be met with difficult travel conditions.  We decided to continue the
advisory for the metro and west central MN due to the combination of
mixed precip at the onset, strong winds with gusts in the 30-40 MPH
range and crashing temperatures late tonight through Thursday.
Snowfall amounts will be light, but impacts could be seen on the
roadways given the rapidly falling temperatures and potential for
flash-freeze on the roads.

Lastly, wind chills will fall through the day and tomorrow night.
The updated forecast calls for values in the -25 to -30 degree range
tomorrow into tomorrow night mainly across western and central MN.
Wind Chill headlines may be needed at that time.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

The majority of the latter portion of the forecast will see
troughing over the eastern half of the continent with ridging over
the west and northwest flow for us. Things do look to become more
zonal toward the very end of the period as the western ridge
flattens. In terms of weather, things will obviously be cold, with
the only precipitating system of any consequence looking to move
through Sunday into Sunday night as an Alberta Clipper drops by to
our southwest. There is a small window of warm advection ahead/north
of it, along with some upper divergence and an area of DPVA.
Precipitation totals look to be from around 0.05" to 0.15", which
could actually give some locations more snow (albeit not much) than
they get with the system tonight/tomorrow. Otherwise, look for
temperatures too continue to cool through Saturday, briefly warm up
some with the Sunday system, then cool again Monday into Tuesday
before we see better warming by Wednesday as the upper flow becomes
more zonal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

IFR periodic LIFR cigs/vsbys expected to continue through much of
the period with incoming frontal system. Appears KAXN will see
precipitation first this evening and it could be a brief mix
through about 03z and then change rapidly to -sn. This will spread
east with the front and upper trough and bring some light snow to
the remainder of the MN TAF sites through 12z. A mix will develop
into the KEAU area overnight before changing over the moderate to
perhaps heavy snow for a time into Thu morning. The heavier snows
will likely occur in a band from near KAEL-KRGK-KEAU. Strong and
gusty northwest winds developing behind front with some BLSN
possible into southern MN into western WI where significant snow
develops.

KMSP...

Expect mainly IFR cigs through the period. We will likely see some
fog move in toward sunset and move out with fropa around 06z.
Could see some -dz/mist with the thicker fog ahead of the front
but we should see any possible freezing potential and change to
snow after 09z. Expect snow through the morning with rates nearing
1/2 inch an hour possible. Snowfall through the morning of around
2 inches forecasted at this time.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

Fri night...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind NW 5 kts.
Sun...MVFR possible with -sn. Wind S 5-10 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST
     Thursday for WIZ014-023.

     Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for WIZ015-
     016-024>028.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST
     Thursday for MNZ041>045-047>070-073>077-082>084-091-092.

     Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for MNZ078-
     085-093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DWE



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