Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 292315
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
515 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE CWA WITH WEAK
RIDGE OVER CO. SOME CU POPPING UP IN WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE...BUT HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DECLINING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS. DEEP
MIXING WILL PROMOTE BREEZY/WINDY SPOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE MILD AND NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER...AND SO SOME RECORD HIGHS MAY BE
BROKEN ON TUESDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK
HILLS...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN SD. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
UPPER DISTURBANCE...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL STATES
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. GFS AND GEM STILL SHOWING A BAND OF
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH BOTH HAVE
BROUGHT IT FARTHER SOUTH. 12Z ECM SOLUTION IS DISORGANIZED. TRENDED
SOUTHWARD WITH POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND BROAD-BRUSHED POPS FOR
FRIDAY. HIGHS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE 50S...WARMER
AND DRIER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WARM...DRY...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE SD PLAINS...STRONGEST IN NORTHWEST
SD WHERE THE RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER. TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM
AND DRY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND MIN RH VALUES 12
TO 22 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY 10 TO 15 MPH. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST WY TO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WITH MIN RH VALUES 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...POJORLIE






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