Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 180515
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1015 PM MST MON NOV 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 149 PM MST MON NOV 17 2014

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SHARP RIDGE ACROSS THE FAR WRN CONUS. A
SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS SD AND WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLD SHSN. ANOTHER TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO
NWRN ALBERTA (OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE)...WITH SOME WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS MOVING TOWARD MT. NORTHWEST WINDS WERE GUSTY
ACROSS WRN SD...BUT WERE WEAKER ACROSS NERN WY TO THE WEST OF A
SFC PRESSURE RIDGE.

FOR TNGT...WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALOFT...RESULTING IN SFC
PRESSURE FALLS AND LEE TROUGHING OVER MT AND WY. THIS WILL BRING SFC
WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTH...AND ALSO RISING TEMPS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH POTENTIALLY LARGE FLUCTUATIONS AS THE WARM AIR
TRIES TO OVERTAKE THE COLD AIR. THE STRATUS DECK CURRENTLY OVER
NWRN-WCNTRL-SCNTRL SD SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE FROM THE WEST AS WARMER
AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS EWD...WITH SHSN ENDING BY 24Z.

ON TUESDAY A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL RACE SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA
ACROSS ERN MT AND INTO WRN SD DURING THE AFTN. WARM ADVECTION IN THE
MRNG WILL BE REPLACED BY COLD ADVECTION AND MIXING DURING THE AFTN
AS A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE CWA. THE NET RESULT WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY HIGHER TEMPS THAN TODAY AS THE WARM AIR ALOFT GETS
MIXED DOWN TO THE SFC. IN ADDITION...SOME LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND
MOISTURE WILL BRING SCT SHSN TO NWRN SD AND THE NRN BLKHLS IN THE
AFTN.

THE NORTHWEST WINDS ALSO WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTN...ESPECIALLY OVER NWRN SD WHERE 850-MB WINDS WILL BE 40-50 KT.
THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF BLSN...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS BAD AS SUNDAY GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPS.

ON TUESDAY NGT THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEB
AND KS...BUT RESIDUAL MOISTURE...UPSLOPE FLOW...AND A TIGHT LOW-
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MAINTAIN ISOLD/SCT SHSN OVER THE BLKHLS
AND PARTS OF THE PLAINS. NORTHWEST WINDS ALSO WILL REMAIN GUSTY
OVER THE AREA...PRODUCING SOME BLSN.

GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS PATTERN THE CONSENSUS RAW GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN THE
BEST VERIFICATION FOR TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 149 PM MST MON NOV 17 2014

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AS THE GREAT LAKES
TROF SHIFTS EAST AND RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST. WARMER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS A TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT A MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN IS POSSIBLE FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM MST MON NOV 17 2014

2500-4500FT AGL CIGS FROM KHEI-KDO7-KICR WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...77






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