Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 021150
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
550 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

LOOKING AT A GREAT STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. STARTING OFF THIS MORNING WITH COOL TEMPERATURES
AND CLEAR SKIES. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD
OUT OF CANADA. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY
TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY REACHING INTO THE 50S AND EVEN SOME LOWER
TO MID 60S FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ALONG WITH THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL COME A CHANCE FOR A FEW LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ITS TRACK
SOUTHWARD. NOT LOOKING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BUT AN
INVERTED V SOUNDING PROFILE LATE THIS AFTERNOON DOES SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS. THIS IS THE TYPE OF SHORTWAVE
THAT COULD PRODUCE COLD AIR FUNNELS GIVEN A COLD CORE ALOFT BUT
BASED ON TIMING OF THE WAVE MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE...ANY
POTENTIAL FOR COLD AIR FUNNELS WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO LATE TONIGHT OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. COULD ALSO SEE SOME GRAUPLE
OR A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER TONIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER NICE DAY ON
TAP FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND CONTINUED WARMING TREND
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WEDNESDAY WILL WARM EVEN FURTHER WITH 60S WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND 70S INTO THE PLAINS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AS THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
STRETCH ALONG THE ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE WEATHER WILL START OUT PLEASANT AND MILD ON THURSDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
70S AND LOW 80S TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THERE WILL BE
LITTLE CONVECTION AND WIND ON THURSDAY. A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY. WITH
SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT AND BETTER LLVL MOISTURE...INSTABILITY WILL
BE BETTER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON (GFS HAS LI VALUES NEAR -3C).
THUS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LOOKS POSSIBLE. A MUCH
BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ARRIVES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS LLVL UPSLOPE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN
OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON AN UNSETTLED WEEKEND...SO HAVE POPS RISING INTO THE 40-60
PERCENT RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CIGS WITH BASES AROUND
5000-10000 FT ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT CDR/AIA.
WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE BELOW 15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY
AND WARMER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEK. BY MIDWEEK DAYTIME
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DIP INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE OUTSIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS. NOT EXPECTING ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
SHOULD SEE RAPID GREEN UP ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK AND NEXT.
ANOTHER LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THAT AREA BY FRIDAY WITH RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...SML


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