Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 131005
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
305 AM MST Fri Jan 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today - Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM MST Fri Jan 13 2017

Mountain snow is expected to continue through early afternoon with
continued orographic forcing and weak energy aloft, but think most
of the accumulations are coming to an end. Nonetheless, we decided
to extend the Winter Weather Advisory for the mountains through 21
Z for better consistency with WFO GJT. Patchy fog will continue to
be a possibility this morning, mainly along/W of the Laramie Range
where the best boundary layer moisture is in place. Model sounding
data hints at some low-level drying over the plains, so expect fog
will not become a problem this morning for those areas. Quiet, and
dry weather expected through most of the weekend w/ weak low-level
and modest gradients pointing to light winds. The models remain in
good agreement with a vigorous upper low lifting into the northern
Texas Panhandle on Sunday afternoon. The northwestern track of the
ECMWF compared to the GFS would potentially favor some deformation
zone snow in our southeastern zones by 21z Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night - Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM MST Fri Jan 13 2017

Fairly quiet weather seen during this period for most of the CWA.
Attention early on will be with the upper low that will lift
northeast out of the far southern Rockys into the central plains
by late Monday. EC continues to be farthest west with its track
and associated pcpn shield...while the GFS continues its idea of
just barely brushing the far east parts of the CWA with its
effects. Most recent run of the EC has trended a bit more east and
will lean more in this direction...bringing the bulk of any pcpn
generally east of a Laramie to Chadron line on Monday. System then
clears the area Monday night with dry and warmer conditions
Tuesday through Wednesday. Should start seeing winds come up some
Weds ahead of the next upper trough that will move into the far
western CONUS Thursday...spreading some pcpn to mainly the western
parts of the CWA at that time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 300 AM MST Fri Jan 13 2017

LIFR conditions due to low cigs will affect the KLAR and KRWL
areas this morning. VFR expected elsewhere though some low clouds
will be over parts of the southern Neb Panhandle. Should see
conditions improve to VFR at KLAR and KRWL as the morning
progresses. IFR/LIFR cigs possible again this evening from KRWL to
KCYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 AM MST Fri Jan 13 2017

No fire weather concerns w/ light winds and high humidity values.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ112-
     114.

NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...CLH



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