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148
FXUS63 KUNR 250511
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1111 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Sunday Night)
Issued at 136 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Latest analysis shows the upper low located over southeastern
Montana with the surface low shifted slightly to the northeast, in
southwestern North Dakota. The leading trough/front arcs in a N/S
direction from the sfc low across eastern SD/NEB with drier air
and sunshine over much of western and central SD. Cooler
temperatures/stratus and light rain are occurring over
northeastern Wyoming and parts of the Black Hills in the wrap-
around area to the west of the low pressure system.

The low pressure system will continue to move northeastward
tonight which will swing a cold front across the forecast area.
Low level CAA and a tight sfc pressure gradient will produce very
windy conditions across parts of northeastern Wyoming and western
South Dakota, especially this evening, so a Wind Advisory has been
issued. The area of wrap-around rain will move into western south
dakota with the best chance of precipitation being located in our
nrn zones with some upslope enhancement in the nrn Blkhls...with
precipitation winding down overnight as the low pressure system
moves away to the northeast. Low temperatures will vary widely
tonight with lows in the 30s over the Black Hills, in the mid to
upper 30s over parts of northeastern Wyoming and generally in the
40s over the plains of western south Dakota.

On Sunday, clearing skies are expected with gusty nw winds
continuing. Advisory criteria winds will continue for nwrn
SD...and the advisory may need to be extended into scntrl SD.
Winds will gradually diminish in the aftn as sfc high builds into
nern WY and far wrn SD. Highs will be in the 50s to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Through Saturday)
Issued at 136 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Strong upper ridging combined with a slowdown in the
upper pattern will bring dry weather to the region through much of
the upcoming work week. Warm air advection will bring temperatures
into the 70s to low 80s by Tuesday and continuing through the end of
the week. Southwest flow is progged to develop across the region
very late in the week which may bring some showers and thunderstorms
to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued At 1110 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2016

MVFR/IFR conditions will continue tonight from the Black Hills
into northwest South Dakota with stratus and showers. Conditions
will improve early Sunday morning. Gusty northwest winds will be
found across the area tonight and Sunday, with 35 to 40 knots
gusts on the plains north and east of the Black Hills.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT Sunday for SDZ001-002-012>014-025-
     026-031-032-072-073.

WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...7