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000
FXUS63 KUNR 042111
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
211 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH A JET STREAK CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
WYOMING...WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
NW WINDS ARE AT 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ACROSS THE SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS...WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW CONTINUING FROM THE NORTHWEST
TO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. KUDX RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES
EAST. WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH BLOWING
SNOW LESSENING. BLOWING SNOW IS NO LONGER AN ISSUE ACROSS
HARDING...BUTTE...AND MUCH OF THE FOOTHILLS...SO WILL CANCEL THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. WILL LET THE REST OF THE
SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS CONTINUE WITH THE ADVISORY UNTIL 00Z AS
VISIBILITIES ARE STILL BEING REDUCED BY BLOWING SNOW.

MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE WIND
CHILLS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN TO 5 TO 15 BELOW
ZERO. WITH BREEZY WINDS HANGING AROUND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
TO 25 BELOW TO 35 BELOW ZERO. WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
BEGINNING AT 00Z TONIGHT WHEN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 5 BELOW TO 8 ABOVE ZERO THURSDAY WITH BREEZY
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE SHOWING EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN...WITH TEMPS 15 BELOW TO 25 BELOW
ZERO. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT CONTINUING THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO REVISIT THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND
CHILL WARNINGS AND/OR EXTENDING THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES OUT FARTHER
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013

THE REGION WILL REMAIN DEEPLY ENTRENCHED IN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A LARGE UPPER TROF COVERING THE CNTRL
CONUS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PRODUCES WEAK WARM ADVECTION
OVER THE COLD DOME OF ARCTIC AIR AT THE SURFACE. ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT WARMER...THOUGH STILL BELOW
AVERAGE... TEMPERATURES RETURNING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK..

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MST WED DEC 4 2013

AREAS OF MVFR WITH LCL IFR VIS IN BLSN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH
AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST /1 PM CST/ FRIDAY FOR SDZ001-
     002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR SDZ002-013-014-027-030>032-041>044-046-047-049-073.

WY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR WYZ054>058-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...77