431
FXUS63 KUNR 111534
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
934 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Cold front will move through the region today with cooler,
 breezy, and showery weather

-Dry this weekend with temps warming back up

-Unsettled conditions return next week

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 931 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Dry air is beginning to move into northeast Wyoming and
northwestern South Dakota, allowing for skies to begin clearing
across these areas. Winds will remain gusty out of the NW but
should begin to decrease heading into the later afternoon hours.
The smoke we saw across the region this morning is beginning to
scour out and move to the ESE. We will keep around the haze for
the next several hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Thursday)
Issued at 115 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Mean NW flow aloft will continue through the period with a few
stronger waves supporting chances for showers/storms at times with
a few cool days mixed in. Strong upper trough will move southeast
today across the region, forcing a cold front through the area.
Winds will briefly gust behind the front, strongest in the lee of
the Black Hills where few gusts to around 50 mph will be possible
this morning before winds gradually come down. Plenty of elevated
moisture and resultant CAPE, which will support scattered showers
and TS, with the best chances from around the BH and east. Dry air
will then advect into the region north to south, shunting shower
chances quickly south, with rain chances ending most areas by
evening. Mostly clear tonight with light winds and dry air
supporting cool temps with lows in the 40s to lower 50s on the
plains to 30s in parts of the Black Hills. Dry this weekend with
temps warming back up into the 80s and 90s. Unsettled flow will
then return next week as another round of impulses traverse the
region with deeper moisture returning. Another stronger upper
trough will move through the region Tues, supporting a good chance
of TS along with much cooler temps by Wed when many areas on the
plains will see highs in the 60s. Things will quickly warm back up
the remainder of the week, with chances for storms at times as
moisture returns.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued At 511 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Generally VFR conditions are expected. The exception would be
MVFR conditions in scattered showers/storms, which will be
possible through afternoon. Best chances for scattered showers
and storms will be across western South Dakota. A cold front will
bring gusty northwest winds to the area for much of the day. Winds
will begin to subside by late afternoon.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Woodward
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...JC