Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 142309

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
409 PM MST Sat Jan 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1250 PM MST Sat Jan 14 2017

A pleasant day across much of the cwfa with sunny skies, light
winds, and somewhat mild temps across many areas. Downslope flow
has allowed temp to climb into the 40s along the eastern slopes of
the Blkhls. Water vapor continues to show dry zonal flow through
the nrn plains, with an upper low over the Baja of CA.

Pleasant weather continues tomorrow with thermal profiles
suggesting even warmer temps for most of the cwfa. Winds will
remain relatively light. Clouds will increase across scntrl SD
tomorrow and tomorrow night as upper low sweeps through the Four
Corners into the srn/cntrl plains. A bit of freezing rain or snow
is possible across far scntrl SD late Sunday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Through Saturday)
Issued at 1250 PM MST Sat Jan 14 2017

The upper level low will move from southern KS to IA on Monday.
Still uncertainty between the various models on the exact track of
the system, but some pcpn on the back side of the system could
clip south central SD through the day on Monday. Any pcpn early
Monday could be freezing rain or a mix, with light snow more
likely through the rest of the day as some colder air aloft builds
into the area. Any snow accumulations at this point look to be an
inch or less, mainly across Tripp County.

Otherwise, a dry and mild weather pattern can be expected for much
of next week. Ridging will help to bring above average temperatures
across the CWA by midweek. Snow cover will limit temperature
potential in some areas, especially to the northeast of the Black
Hills, where deeper snowpack is in place. The warmest days look to
be Wednesday and Thursday, with highs mostly in the upper 30s and
40s. Some 50s still look likely over the eastern slopes of the Black
Hills and into the foothills if westerly winds develop as expected.
Medium range models are in pretty good agreement at this point on
the next system ejecting out of the western states on Friday, with
chances for mostly snow Friday into Saturday as some colder air also
builds back into the region.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued At 409 PM MST Sat Jan 14 2017

VFR conditions and light winds expected through the period.




SHORT TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...JC is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.