Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 280947
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
347 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN MONTANA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY
INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A SLOW
MOVING N-S ORIENTED TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS THIS MORNING. ABUNDANT LL MOISTURE AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING ALONG WITH ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO THE EAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH WHERE LL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD TO ML CAPE
AROUND 1700J/KG THIS AFTN. LCLY HVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLKHLS THIS AFTN WHICH COULD INCREASE
FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE CREEKS AND STREAMS WHICH ARE ALREADY
RUNNING HIGH DUE TO THE RECENT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ANOTHER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT SUPPORTING AN
ENHANCED AREA OF CONVERGENCE WITH SHRA CHANCES CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND...AS CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...BUT THERMAL
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR A
WARM-UP...WITH SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN
TROF REDEVELOPS AND UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE SHIFT NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR
ANY STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15


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