Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 190154
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
754 PM MDT SUN SEP 18 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 751 PM MDT Sun Sep 18 2016

raised pops across the northern half tonight. shortwave trough
coming in a little stronger than previous indications. although
decent lift is expected with this system, dry profiles will limit
showers to mostly isolated activity with only light qpf expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Monday Night)
Issued at 231 PM MDT Sun Sep 18 2016

Water vapor shows fast quasi zonal flow from the pac nw through
the nrn plains. At the sfc...frontal boundary is moving through
the cntrl Dakotas early this aftn. Warm and breezy conditions
across the cwfa with temps in the upper 70s to around 90.

Tonight...Weak wave embedded in the westerly flow crosses the nrn
plains tonight. Forcing is rather weak and the lower atmosphere
relatively dry...so will only maintain small pops for nwrn SD.

Monday...Dry and mild conditions expected as sfc high builds into
the cwfa...with temps 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today behind
the cdfnt.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Through Sunday)
Issued at 231 PM MDT Sun Sep 18 2016

Upper ridging across the region will bring warm and dry
weather to the area Tue. Cooler air will push into the area Tue
night into Wed with more seasonable highs in the upper 60s to lower
80s. A Pacific Northwest upper low will slowly approach the region
towards the end of the week...bringing significant moisture to the
region. There are still model timing differences...however, models
are still showing late Thursday into Friday as being wet
days...followed by mainly dry slotting and cooler temps through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued At 507 PM MDT Sun Sep 18 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. gusty nw
winds on the nw sd plains will subside this evening. a few
sprinkles will be possible this evening across the northern half
from a weak disturbance.


&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Update...JC
SHORT TERM...Johnson
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...JC



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