Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KUNR 011959
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
159 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AT 1920Z...A WEAK 1007MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ARE OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW IN
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WHILE NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA HAVE CLEAR SKIES. AS THE LOW DRIFTS OFF TO THE
WEST...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING LATE THIS
EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED SO ONLY EXPECTING
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...TONIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET AND CALM ACROSS THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TOMORROW...WITH MANY AREAS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S...AND A FEW PLACES IN THE EASTERN CWA ECLIPSING
THE CENTURY MARK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY. A COUPLE OF MODELS HAVE HINTED AT CONVECTION EARLY IN
THE DAY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
EXITS THE AREA...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY AS
CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IS LOW. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE MILD AND DRY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PAC NW THU TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. SWRLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES...THE FIRST OF
WHICH MAY BRING SOME -TSRA TO THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...KEEPING THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WARMER THAN THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
LATE FRIDAY AND MAINLY INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF
AND CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS SAT INTO SUN.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW SUN/MON. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NERN WY
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER MT. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD DROP TO 30-40F WITH RH DROPPING TO 10-15 PERCENT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE WINDS OF 25-30KT MIXING DOWN FROM ALOFT.
THUS...WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING ALSO...WITH MIN RH
AROUND 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER...SO
WILL REFRAIN FROM FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES THURSDAY FOR NOW.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ259.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...POJORLIE


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.