National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 250933
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
233 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 227 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IA WITH HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE CWA FROM MT INTO WY. GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXING
WITH WINDS EBBING. WATER VAPOUR SHOWED UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA. EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL DRIVE SHORT TERM
WEATHER.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THERMAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW
ENHANCES DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL MT INTO CENTRAL NE.
RESULT WILL BE PLEASANT TEMPERATURES TODAY AND DOWNRIGHT WARM
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. RECORD HIGHS IN JEOPARDY MONDAY GIVEN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. WEATHER WILL BE DRY EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A FEW
SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST WY/HIGHER TERRAIN AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF MT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 227 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPS AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL COOL DOWN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE SOME TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THE GFS SHOWS A
MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN THAN THE ECMWF...BUT BOTH HAVE BEEN
TRENDING DRIER. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE
LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 227 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS CAN GENERALLY BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office