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000
FXUS63 KUNR 130510
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1110 PM MDT WED MAR 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT WED MAR 12 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. SKIES ARE MAINLY
SUNNY ACROSS THE AREA WITH BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S...WITH UPPER
30S TO MID 40S ACROSS LINGERING SNOW COVERED AREAS AND THE BLACK
HILLS.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE
THURSDAY...AS THE THERMAL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS
WILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SD PLAINS...WITH 50S ELSEWHERE. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ON
THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT. LOWS AT NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT WED MAR 12 2014

UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES THRU THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN NWRLY FLOW
FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
RAIN/SNOW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. FAST MOVING RIDGE
PASSES OVER ON SUNDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING
TEMPS. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW NEXT WEEK.
WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ALONG WITH A MODEST COOLING
TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM MDT WED MAR 12 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT WED MAR 12 2014

ICE JAMS CONTINUE TO FORM AND RELEASE ALONG AREA RIVERS. FLOODING
HAS BEEN REPORTED ALONG THE LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER AT CAMP CROOK
AND ALONG THE WHITE RIVER SOUTHWEST OF OACOMA...NEAR THE HIGHWAY
47 BRIDGE. ICE BREAK-UP ON THE RIVERS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK
AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD. WET...DEEPLY FROZEN SOILS HAVE
INCREASED THE RUNOFF POTENTIAL FROM MELTING SNOW AND RECENT
RAINFALL RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL WATER IN THE CREEKS...STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

NEW WARNINGS WERE ISSUED TODAY FOR THE WHITE RIVER NEAR OACOMA WITH
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUING FOR THE LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER AT CAMP
CROOK. MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND FORECASTED AT BOTH LOCATIONS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...HELGESON
HYDROLOGY...SMITH