Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 162056
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
256 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN IOWA WITH
HIGH ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER PUSHING INTO THE NRN
PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES TROF SLIDING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH RIDGE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST BRINGING NWRLY FLOW TO OUR
AREA. VARIETY OF WEAK WAVES NOTED MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW.

FOR TONIGHT...A CHILLY NIGHT IS ON TAP AS COLD SFC HIGH CONTINUES
ITS PUSH INTO THE PLAINS...THOUGH COLDEST TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN TO
THE EAST. WITH WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIP MAY DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THE WRN PTNS OF THE CWA.

ON THURSDAY...WARMER AIRMASS STARTS TO PUSH ITS WAY BACK INTO THE
AREA WITH TEMPS STARTING TO REBOUND. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE
AS FLOW ALOFT REMAINS SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC. RIDGE PUSHES ITS WAY IN
OVERNIGHT BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE RIDGE SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...AS UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTS INTO CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND MAY
BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. FLAT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...BRINGING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. LONGWAVE UPPER TROF DIGS
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH STRONG RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. COULD SEE A FEW 80S ON TUESDAY. MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS INTERESTING AS UPPER TROF EJECTS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF...ALTHOUGH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING/TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS IN THESE AREAS WITH LOCAL IFR CEILINGS
OVER THE BLACK HILLS. MVFR CLOUD DECK  ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15





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