Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 261940

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
140 PM MDT Mon Sep 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 139 PM MDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Closed low will remain in place over the great lakes with nw
conus troughing ongoing. This will support local ridging with
associated waa over the northern plains under dry nw flow. Dry
weather can be expected with fairly light nw winds through the
period. Weak pgf over the region will support fairly light flow
over the fa tonight, with decent radiational cooling over the
eastern fa expected in areas. Otherwise, warmer conds expected
tue with highs in the 70s and a few 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Through Monday)
Issued at 139 PM MDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Northerly upper flow will continue through mid week as
high pressure remains entrenched over the western CONUS. This will
bring dry conditions and mild temperatures. As the upper ridge
shifts east, an upper low off the Pacific Northwest Coast will
deepen, transitioning the flow over to the southwest. The southwest
flow will pull moisture into the Northern Plains beginning on
Thursday and Friday. This moisture will combine with energy ejecting
from the upper low, bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Eventually the upper low will push onshore and track across the
northern CONUS. At this time the models are indicating this would
occur next week. Until then, pleasant fall weather is expected.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued At 139 PM MDT Mon Sep 26 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
Breezy northerly surface winds of 15 to 25 mph will quickly
decrease around sunset.




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