Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 131641
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1041 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KS...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TROF
DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE EAST OF THE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
REGIONAL RADARS NOW SHOW MOST OF THE SNOWFALL IS TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CWA...WITH LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
FROM NORTHEAST WY INTO PORTIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR
SOUTHERN SD. THE REST OF THE WINTER WX ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...WITH LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER THE
ADVISORY AREA...WITH SOME FAVORED AREAS OF THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS
LIKELY RECEIVING A BIT MORE. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS...WHERE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE. COLD AIR
HAS SETTLED IN OVER THE REGION...WITH CURRENT TEMPS IN THE 20S
AND LOWER 30S.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY. IN ADDITION...HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PCPN
CHANCES...CLOUD COVER...AND WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM WEST
CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY
DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WSW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CROSSING WRN KS...WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING
THROUGH SCNTRL SD INTO NEB. OBS/RADAR SHOWS SNOW ACROSS NE WY INTO
MUCH OF WRN SD...EXCEPT RAIN OVER SW TO SCNTRL SD.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THIS MORNING AS COLDER AIR
ADVECTS IN. LIGHT SNOW OVER NW SD ENDED QUICKLY EARLY THIS MORNING.
WEBCAMS SHOWING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NE WY AND THROUGH THE BLACK
HILLS AREA AT THIS TIME...THOUGH LIKELY NOT MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO
AT THIS POINT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WILL END
NORTH TO SOUTH AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BULK
OF PRECIP ENDING BY 12-15Z AS BETTER DYNAMICS SHIFT SOUTH OF THE CWA.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT HEADLINES FOR NOW...AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK
AT THE FORECAST CLOSER TO 12Z. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 50S. BREEZY N/NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY.
PLAINS EAST OF THE BLKHLS COULD REACH MINIMAL WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS MORNING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
HEADLINES. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY WITH WARMER
AIR ADVECTING BACK IN FROM THE SW. A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE CROSS THE REGION...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE
CHILLY...DROPPING INTO THE 20S.


&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY...WHICH WILL
CARVE OUT A LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA
INTO THE DAKOTAS LATE TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK. COLD FRONT SURGES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SERIES OF EMBEDDED WAVES IN THE LARGE SCALE TROF WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA...THOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF BEST LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

IFR VSBY WITH SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH SNOW GRADUALLY ENDING THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE SNOW ENDS...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSISTS INTO THIS
EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS OVER NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY...WITH IMPROVEMENT THIS
EVENING.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7






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