Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 132041
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
241 PM MDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...
204 PM MDT Wed Mar 13 2024

-Lower potential snow accumulations this aftn/tonight due to
 farther southwest track of weaker low pressure system
-Splitting upper-trough brings windy and cooler weather tonight
 and Thursday
-Dry weather returns with breezy/windy spots over the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Wednesday)
Issued at 204 PM MDT Wed Mar 13 2024

20Z analysis shows an upper trough to the west of the forecast
area with a closed upper low dropping southward from Idaho into
Utah. The surface low is centered over southwestern Kansas.

Precipitation, mostly rain, has developed in the area of enhanced
lift to the east of the upper low, over northeastern Wyoming and
far western South Dakota. Some light rain is also moving northward
out of Nebraska and into southwestern and south central south
Dakota, but due to the relatively dry lower levels, much of what
is being seen on radar is not reaching the ground. Due to the
upper low track remaining farther to the southwest than previously
indicated, have again lowered the potential snow accumution for
the rest of this afternoon and tonight, now with less than an inch
over the northern Black Hills and an inch or two in the higher
elevation areas of southwestern Campbell county. No snow
accumulation is anticipated over the rest of the area.

Breezy/windy conditions will develop tonight, and on Thursday, as
the surface pressure gradient tightens. Northeasterly winds
tonight may lead to gusty areas over the southern Black Hills and
also on the plains adjacent to, and southeast of, the Black Hills
into Thursday morning. During the day on Thursday, northerly wind
gusts approaching 40 mph are possible over parts of western South
Dakota, generally along, and to the south of, I-90.

Breezy conditions are possible over much of the region on Friday,
becoming windy over parts of northwestern South Dakota due to
pressure falls over eastern North Dakota. Temperatures will be
a little warmer on Friday, mainly in the 50s on the plains. A
cold front associated with an upper trough dropping from Manitoba
toward the Great Lakes will provide a glancing blow of cooler air
to at least the SD side of the forecast area this weekend. Temperatures
will rebound for the first half of next week as upper ridge
builds over the western CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Thursday)
Issued At 1041 AM MDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Areas of MVFR/IFR conditions in SHRA/SN will expand across
northeastern WY and potentially into the Black Hills through 00z,
though with the parent system taking an increasingly southward
track, these reduced conditions are expected to cover a smaller
area than in previous forecasts. MVFR/IFR conditions are then
expected to erode from northeast to southwest after 00z, with VFR
conditions prevailing for most by 06z. More widespread MVFR to
LIFR conditions may arrive behind a secondary front late in the
period (09z onward). Breezy to windy winds, predominantly out of
the north, are anticipated through much of the period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...10
AVIATION...Sherburn


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