228
FXUS63 KUNR 101733
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1133 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Slight chances for showers and storms today, best chance over
 the SW Black Hills

-Cold front will move through the region late tonight with
 cooler, breezy, and showery weather Friday

-Dry this weekend with temps warming back up

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Wednesday)
Issued at 106 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Mean NW flow aloft will continue through the period with a few
stronger waves supporting chances for showers/storms at times with
a few cool days mixed in. Another upper impulse is traversing the
region this morning, supporting some high based showers across
the NW FA. A few of these showers have collapsed and with with
steep lapse rates off the sfc, have supported local strong gusts
and heat bursts. This will continue through the early morning with
activity eventually shifting south and waning. Small pocket of
monsoon moisture will support increased cloud cover across the
southern third of FA today, likely holding temps down there. Most
places however will see highs in the 80s and 90s. Diurnal heating
with localized forcing around the BH will support SW side eddy
convergence there, supporting the best chance for thunderstorms in
the FA. Shower chances elsewhere look limited with lack of
overall forcing. Deeper upper trough will begin to move into the
region tonight, supporting small chances for showers overnight
ahead of the cold front. Cold front will move through the region
Friday morning with breezy northwest for a period. Better chances
for showers Friday post frontal with the upper trough passing over
the region, however rain chances will still be in the low chance
category most places with limited low level moisture. Much cooler
temps can be expected Friday, with temps struggling into the 70s
over parts of northeast WY. Mainly sunny and dry this weekend,
although return flow may support convection by late Sunday over
the far west. Unsettled flow then looks to return next week as a
baroclinic zone stalls near or over the region with sufficient
moisture and fast flow aloft. Cooler conds expected by Wed of next
week as a stronger cold front moves through the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Friday)
Issued At 1130 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Generally VFR conditions are expected. The exception would be
MVFR conditions in any showers/storms, which will be possible
throughout the TAF period. Low confidence in precipitation at
sites, so no mention in TAFs for now.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...Dye