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000
FXUS63 KUNR 041134
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
434 AM MST WED DEC 4 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 434 AM MST WED DEC 4 2013

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING SOUTH AND
EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE
SCALE TROF OVER THE REGION...WITH ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
SASK AND WEAKENING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW MAIN BAND OF SNOW THAT HAS IMPACTED WESTERN
NEB INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD IS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. LINGERING
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES PERSIST OVER THE REST OF THE
AREA. WINDS ARE BREEZY ACROSS THE AREA AND LIKELY PRODUCING AT
LEAST SOME PATCHY BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AT THIS TIME. TEMPS
ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE
WINDS PRODUCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 5 BELOW TO 20 BELOW ZERO.

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES LINGERING UNDER MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. LITTLE
OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMLATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...POSSIBLY AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN
SD. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME LATER THIS MORNING...INTO THE 15 TO
30 MPH RANGE IN MOST AREAS. THIS WILL HELP TO PRODUCE AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS WHERE HEAVIER SNOW HAS FALLEN. TEMPS WILL NOT RISE MUCH
TODAY...IF AT ALL IN SOME AREAS...WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND LOWER TEENS. WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 10 BELOW
TO 25 BELOW RANGE TODAY. WILL KEEP A WINTER WX ADVISORY GOING FOR
THE AREA TODAY...NORTHEASTERN WY THROUGH THE MORNING...FOR THE
COMBINATION OF THESE CONDITIONS.

LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL TAPER OFF AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS LIKELY OVER AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OVERNIGHT TO THE ZERO TO 15 BELOW
RANGE. EVEN WITH WINDS DECREASING...WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO 20
BELOW TO 30 BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT. WILL NEED WIND CHILL HEADLINES FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AND LIKELY LONGER AS BITTER COLD AIR
REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 434 AM MST WED DEC 4 2013

THE REGION WILL REMAIN DEEPLY ENTRENCHED IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A LARGE UPPER TROF COVERING THE CNTRL
CONUS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PRODUCES WEAK WARM ADVECTION
OVER THE COLD DOME OF ARCTIC AIR AT THE SURFACE. ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY...BUT THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MODELS THAT
WARMER AIR MAY MOVE IN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 434 AM MST WED DEC 4 2013

MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
FCST PERIOD. THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOWFALL
PRODUCING IFR VSBYS AT TIMES.

GUSTY NW WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE
DECREASING SLIGHTLY TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL FOUND ACROSS
THE PLAINS OF NWRN AND WCNTRL SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
     WYZ054>058-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON