Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 072314
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
414 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

20Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS THE CWA "SQUEEZED" BETWEEN A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND RIDGE OVER MINNESOTA AND THE WESTERN
CONUS...RESPECTIVELY. THIS...ALONG WITH AN EXTREMELY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM A 997MB LOW IN MINNESOTA AND 1034 HIGH IN
WYOMING...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND POWERFUL WIND EVENT ONGOING IN THE CWA AT THIS
TIME. HAVE ALREADY HAD MULTIPLE HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS
THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...WITH THE HIGHEST OCCURRING IN WASTA AND
SCENIC AT 78MPH. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...BUT STILL EXPECT
BREEZY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30
MPH AND GUSTS APPROACHING 40MPH.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN BEGINS
TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CWA. WINDS WILL STILL BE
BREEZY MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY...BUT SHOULD
DROP DOWN BY EVENING WHEN THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS IN. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER
RIDGE DOMINATING THE WRN CONUS. BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL PUSH INTO OUR
ERN HALF OF ZONES TUESDAY AS UPPER WAVE DROPS SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. COULD BE SOME -SHRA/-SHSN WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. WARMER AIR WILL
THEN PUSH BACK INTO THE ENTIRE CWFA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW ANOTHER BACKDOOR CDFNT TO
SLIDE INTO OUR ERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER
SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT PCPN. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WX TYPE SNOW
BUT THERMAL PROFILES DO SHOW SOME CHANCE FOR FREEZING DZ/-RA SO
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 413 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 55KTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY/WINDY THROUGH
MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ057-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...HELGESON


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