Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 170451

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1051 PM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...This Evening Through Sunday
Issued at 213 PM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Upper ridge axis has shifted east of the forecast area, allowing
southwest flow to bring moisture toward the northern Plains.
North-south oriented surface trof across eastern MT and just east
of the Big Horn Mts at 20Z with cold front behind it over southern
MT. Gusty south winds over forecast area will diminish later this
afternoon and evening. Trof will cross the overnight and although
CAPE values are low, isolated thunderstorms may develop,
especially over far northwestern SD. Some of the storms could
produce gusty winds. Thunderstorm potential will continue over
western SD Monday as trof continues to move eastward and
temperatures will be cooler. Zonal flow will predominate during
the first part of the week with occasional shortwaves crossing the
northern Plains, then ridge rebounds and monsoonal moisture will
again move northward toward the forecast area.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued At 1035 PM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Gusty winds will
occur with isolated to scattered thunderstorms through about 10z.
Additional scattered thunderstorms will form Monday afternoon
over the Black Hills and parts of west-central SD, with better
chances for thunderstorms Monday evening.




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