Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49

000
FXUS63 KUNR 291034
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
434 AM MDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Friday)
Issued at 411 AM MDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Upper level analysis has large trof across the western CONUS with
closed lows over the four corners area and across south central
Canada. Skies are mostly cloudy across the Northern Plains with
precip well south of the forecast area. At the surface, high
pressure was located across the Dakotas. Temperatures at 4 am were
in the mid 20s to mid 30s with light winds.

Today...Surface high pressure will remain over the area through
tonight as the four corners low slowly lifts in the central
Plains. With a lack of precip, temperatures will begin to rebound
from the cold conditions the past several days. Highs will be in
the 40s to mid 50s, coolest over snow covered areas of Northeast
WY. Skies will remain variably cloudy through tonight, with low
temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Sunday...The four corners upper low will move out into the
Central Plains and track northeast into the upper MS river valley
Sunday into Monday. Still looks like the northwest edge of the
pcpn shield could clip far south central SD, but there are still
some discrepancies in the timing of this system. SREF and GFS
have precip arriving in far south central SD by Sunday morning,
while NAM and EC hold off precip until sunday afternoon.
Regardless, by Sunday evening, precip should be ongoing and there
could be a mix of rain and snow with little accumulation expected.

The first half of next week will be unsettled as northwest flow
on the back side of eastward moving upper trof brings a series of
weaker disturbances across the Northern Plains. Daily chances for
showers are expected in many areas, mostly during the afternoon
and evening hours. With some decent heating and steeper lapse
rates, a few thunderstorms look possible Monday afternoon.
Temperatures will remain slightly below average through Wednesday,
with highs mostly in the 50s and lower 60s. Ridging is still
forecast to build into the region late in the week, with highs
rising to the 60s and 70s on Thursday and Friday, Friday being the
warmer day for most areas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued At 1118 PM MDT Fri Apr 28 2017

VFR conditions will continue most places through Saturday. Except
will be local IFR CIGS/VSBYS over northeast WY/Black Hills late
tonight and early Saturday morning due to patchy ST/FG.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...Helgeson



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.