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000
FXUS63 KUNR 051047
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
347 AM MST THU DEC 5 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 345 AM MST THU DEC 5 2013

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES...WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION WITH LARGE SCALE TROF REMAINING OVER MUCH OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. SKIES ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH THE MOST CLOUDS GENERALLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SD
PLAINS. TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...WITH
SOME COLDER TEMPS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN WY... THE BLACK
HILLS...AND THE USUAL COLDER SPOTS WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHTER. WIND
CHILL VALUES RANGE FROM -20 TO -30 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

THE FRIGID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS TROF REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
RECORD DAILY LOWS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA
OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. FOR TODAY...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AS
BRISK WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SD PLAINS AND TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE
TO RISE. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
NORTHWESTERN SD REMAINING BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL VALUES OF -20 TO
-30 WILL CONTINUE TODAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 10 BELOW TO 25
BELOW ZERO AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW OF THE USUAL COLDER SPOTS DROP TO NEAR 30 BELOW. WINDS
WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...BUT WIND CHILL VALUES OF 20 BELOW TO
35 BELOW ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY AS
SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. TEMPS WILL
AGAIN STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE ZERO...WITH NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA STAYING BELOW ZERO. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWESTERN SD...AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES
THROUGH WITH WAA ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 345 AM MST THU DEC 5 2013

THE REGION WILL REMAIN DEEPLY ENTRENCHED IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A LARGE UPPER TROF COVERING THE CNTRL
CONUS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES FROM
THE CNTRL ROCKIES THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS THE SRN CWFA. FOLLOWING THIS
WAVE...SLIGHTLY WARMER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
REGION. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE ARCTIC AIR
MOVING EAST OF OUR REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 345 AM MST THU DEC 5 2013

LOCAL MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MRNG HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST /1 PM CST/ FRIDAY FOR SDZ001-
     002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074.

WY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR WYZ054>058-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON