Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 260932
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
232 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MB WITH WARM FRONT
INTO CENTRAL NE. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
US AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST.

TODAY/TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL/THERMAL RIDGE WILL PEAK OVER THE CWA.
850-700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. AVERAGE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE DOWNSLOPING. RESULT
WILL BE STUNNINGLY MILD WEATHER FOR LATE JANUARY WITH MANY RECORD
HIGHS IN JEOPARDY FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY. ONE WILD CARD FOR ACTUAL
HIGHS WILL BE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS OVERTOPPING RIDGE...BUT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF SOLAR INSOLATION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WEAKEN ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL COOLDOWN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK....BUT TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AND BRISK
WINDS AT TIMES...BUT CHANCES FOR PCPN STILL LOOK RATHER LOW AT
THIS POINT. HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO SHOW MUCH MORE
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH REGARD TO TEMPS AND ANY PCPN
CHANCES...WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. LATEST ECMWF IS NOW COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED THAN THE GFS.
FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26
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