Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 301654
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1054 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS WEAK TROF/BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER
SOUTHERN ALBERTA FLATTENING THE AMPLITUDE OF RIDGE. FOR
TODAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS ALONG TROF OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. MLCAPE OF 1000-1500J/KG EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MINIMAL CAPE. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE AREA WILL TRIGGER
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SUFFICIENT SHEAR
FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. SOUTHERN ALBERTA SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH
THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHIFTING EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF
SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NEXT
SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA AS WEAK UPPER ENERGY MOVES OVER THE
REGION. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES IN THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE
SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN HILLS BOTH DAYS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING CANADIAN UPPER LOW
FLATTENING THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE THIS WEEKEND...BUT
UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN IN THE TIMING OF THE COOL FRONT AND ANY
PRECIPITATION...AND SO KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
POSSIBLE IFR/MVFR CIGS WED MRNG OVER NWRN SD AS STRATUS MOVES
SOUTH OUT OF ND. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...EXPECT IT TO MOVE EAST BY
18Z. OTHERWISE...SCT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED THIS AFTN/EVNG OVER NERN
WY AND NWRN-WRN SD...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER NWRN SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...BUNKERS


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