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000
FXUS63 KUNR 060957
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
257 AM MST THU MAR 6 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 239 AM MST THU MAR 6 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS STRONG UPPER TROF PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW...AND
IS FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. AT
THE SFC...ARCTIC BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED ACRS MT INTO WRN ND.
QUITE MILD TEMPS THIS MRNG ACRS THE CWFA WITH THERMAL RIDGE
EXTENDING INTO NERN WY/WRN SD.

TODAY...A VERY MILD DAY IN STORE TODAY AS THERMAL RIDGE WORKS EAST
ACROSS THE CWFA. THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE
BLKHLS WHERE SNOW COVER IS MOSTLY VOID...WITH READINGS NEAR 60
POSSIBLE. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED ACROSS BOTH NWRN SD AND
CNTRL SD WHERE SNOW COVER STILL EXISTS...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS
SNOW COVER TO BE ERODED TODAY WITH THE MILD TEMPS.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROF WORKS QUICKLY THROUGH THE PAC NW INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES. NRN STREAM JET STREAK RACES EWD ALONG THE CNTRL US/CNDN
BORDER AND PUSHES ARCTIC BOUNDARY SWD ACRS THE CWFA. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCD WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK AND
OVERRUNNING OF COLDER AIR PUSHING SWD WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE
FOR -SHRASN...ESPECIALLY FROM NERN WY INTO SWRN SD.

FRIDAY...PCPN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY FROM NERN WY
INTO SWRN SD AS UPPER TROF WORKS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. TEMPS
WILL LIKELY NOT RECOVER MUCH FROM MRNG LOWS GIVEN STRENGTH OF COLD
ADVECTION AND RATHER EXPANSIVE LOW STRATUS...ESPECIALLY ON THE SD
PLAINS. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES. ANY PCPN
WILL END FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 239 AM MST THU MAR 6 2014

UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH
DRY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL RETURN LATE
MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE WEAKENS AND MORE ACTIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 239 AM MST THU MAR 6 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR IN SNOW EARLY TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING...AND SPREAD INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AFTER 06Z.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15