Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 271648
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1048 AM MDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 AM MDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southeast
CO, with surface trough stretching north and west across eastern
WY into MT. Upper level analysis shows trough axis over the
Dakotas moving quickly east. Weak ridging is in place over the
Rockies, with an upper low over the southwest. Patchy fog has
dissipated across the area, with mainly sunny skies and light
winds. Temps are currently in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

Minor update to forecast, mainly to remove fog and tweak sky
cover and winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Sunday Night)
Issued at 336 AM MDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Water vapor imagery shows an upper trough across the High Plains
with its main axis now pushing across ne WY. Several weak waves
associated with this axis are crossing the area. KUDX radar showing
showers stretching from parts of ne WY through the BH area into
cntrl SD. These showers will continue to move eastward through the
early morning hours as the trough axis pushes across the CWA.
Convection is expected to end by mid-morning as it slides east of
the CWA border. Weak upper ridging will then build into the region
today...though will transition quickly to more of a zonal pattern.
Skies will clear out and temps will be warmer with highs reaching
80s over the plains and 70s over the BH. Main upper flow will shift
northward into Canada Sunday. Weak SW flow will develop bringing in
warmer temps...with Sunday highs reaching the upper 80s to mid
90s...cooler over the BH. A dry day is expected with weak mid/upper
flow. Temps tonight and Sun night will drop into the 50s to lower
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Through Friday)
Issued at 336 AM MDT Sat Aug 27 2016

An upper level ridge will dominate the weather next week with
temperatures 5-10F above normal. Southwest flow should develop for
the second half of the week creating the potential for some -TSRA,
but confidence is low with timing of each shortwave. Very dry
afternoon minimum relative humidities are expected most days with
gusty winds possible at times. This will be something to watch
given subjective pattern recognition for fire weather concerns,
especially over northeast Wyoming where driest air is expected
along with thermal ridge position.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Sunday)
Issued At 1048 AM MDT Sat Aug 27 2016

VFR conditions expected through the period.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Update...26
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...Helgeson
AVIATION...McKemy



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