Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 291726

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1126 AM MDT Thu Sep 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Friday Night)
Issued at 225 AM MDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Deep closed low will remain in place over the Ohio Valley region
with upper ridging ongoing over the central CONUS as the next
upper low approaches the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, the
surface pressure gradient between high pressure over the Great
Plains and deepening low pressure over the west will produce
breezy to windy southerly low level flow over the forecast area
this afternoon. Positive theta-e advection will support weak
instability late this afternoon into this evening over parts of
northeastern Wyoming and northwestern South Dakota with a few
showers and thunderstorms possible. Most places will remain dry
with bulk of forcing remaining well of to the west. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible over the Black Hills again on
Friday. High temperatures today and Friday will be similar, mainly
in the lower 70s to lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 AM MDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Strong upper ridge axis will cross the cntrl CONUS Sat bringing
continued warm weather and generally dry weather except for
isolated aftn storms over the BH. A west coast low pressure system
will begin to approach the region early next week. Models are
having better agreements on how this system will cross the nrn
Plains...however there could still be shifts in the solution over
the next few days. At this time it looks like this storm could
bring much precipitation to the region...which may include the CWA
depending on where the dry slot develops. Wrap around precip
toward the middle of next week may bring snow to higher elevations
of the BH.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Friday)
Issued At 1124 AM MDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this evening
across northeastern Wyoming and western South Dakota. Could see
MVFR cigs/vis in some of the heavier showers/storms. Otherwise,
expect VFR conditions through the period.




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