Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 171958
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
158 PM MDT Sat Jun 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM MDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Upper shortwave continues to push through the northern
plains, along with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Satellite shows some clearing behind the wave. At the surface,
northwesterly winds are 20-30 mph, strongest across northwestern SD.
Models have continued to trend weaker with the winds, although some
show a slight increase later this afternoon. Will continue the
advisory for most places, but will cancel for areas no longer
expected to reach criteria.

Winds and showers will dissipate this evening as the wave shifts
east. Under mostly clear skies, lows will be in the 40s to lower 50s.

The western CONUS upper ridge will strengthen on Sunday, and a
warming trend will begin. Highs will be in the 70s, with mostly dry
conditions. Hi-res convective models are hinting at a few afternoon
showers, supported by some weak instability. However, model
soundings show dry low levels. Have added mention of showers/storms
for the Hills, but will leave out of the rest of the CWA for now.

For next week, strong upper ridging will keep weather warm and dry.
Highs will be in the 80s and 90s by midweek, with a slight cooldown
expected towards the end of the week.  Low temperatures will warm
back to the 50s and 60s for much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Sunday)
Issued At 1137 AM MDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Rain showers will persist across the KRAP terminal location
through 1930z before tapering off. vfr cigs will remain. while
vsbys may briefly drop into the mvfr category...not expected to
become prevailing. ISOLD TS is also psble however not likely. NW
winds from 25-35kts are also expected on the SD plains. Further
west...pcpn is over at the KGCC terminal with improving conds
already taking place. SCT vfr clouds will remain through 00z
before going SKC. By 02z SKC conds are expected for both terminal
locations with winds 10kts or less. Good VFR conds expected to
remain for remainder of valid terminal fcst period.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for SDZ001-002-012-013-
     026-031-072-073.

WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pojorlie
AVIATION...Hintz



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