Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 261009
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
409 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MOISTURE
IS LIMITED SO DO NOT EXPECT VERY MUCH SNOW. MAYBE AN INCH ACROSS
THE NORTH AND A DUSTING IN THE SOUTH. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
TROUGH WILL MAKE FOR COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
THANKSGIVING DAY. IT IS COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT AND THANKSGIVING BUT WIND DIRECTIONS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE AND WIND SPEEDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT. ANY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...BRINGING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW TO MOST LOCATIONS.
MAY BE A NARROW BAND OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES
IN WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL...SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO SNOW TOTALS MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HAVE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY EVENING...THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS. SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR END
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THE MODELS TONIGHT
ARE DEPICTING AN EAST-WEST BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE WHAT TO MAKE OF THIS FEATURE
AT THIS POINT SINCE THIS IS A NEW DEVELOPMENT. WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS UNTIL
THIS FEATURE GETS RESOLVED. MUCH WARMER AIR AT 850MB OR LACK OF
MOISTURE AROUND 700MB WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30S. IT WILL TURN COLDER FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S. THE LATEST ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARM
UP BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO LOWER
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY DEPART FAR EASTERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
STATE. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
AN APPROACHING AREA OF MVFR CIGS OVER MINNESOTA WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM HAVE SLOWED DOWN TUESDAY EVENING AND MAY REACH CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN THE
REST OF THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY. DEVELOPING LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY BRING BACK THE MVFR CIGS OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE
PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS DUE
TO FOG WHICH MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TDH






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