Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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983
FXUS63 KGRB 221647
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1147 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Sunday
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Although today will be a fairly quiet day, there are still some
concerns as very dry air in place raises fire weather concerns
across the region. Although recent heavy rain and a wet ground
should help mitigate some of these concerns, warm high
temperatures in the lower to middle 60s and low dew points in the
20s will cause RH values to fall to around 20 percent this
afternoon.

A back door cold front pushing south from Canada will slowly sink
south towards the northern Great Lakes tonight. The precipitation
from this front is expected to stay north of the cwa tonight as
clouds increase across north-central Wisconsin after midnight.
Overnight lows will be a bit warmer with return flow, dropping
into the 30s.

This back door cold front will continue sagging south on Sunday,
with a small chance for rain across north-central Wisconsin as it
stalls across the north. Despite the halt of the cold front, a
pneumonia front is progged to race south across Lake Michigan on
Sunday, turning a rather pleasant early Sunday into cooler Sunday
afternoon as the cold air pushes in across east-central and
northeast Wisconsin. Sunday will mark quite the dichotomy in
temperatures as central Wisconsin soars into the middle 60s, while
far north-central Wisconsin remains around 50 degrees. Meanwhile
across east-central and northeast Wisconsin temperatures rising to
around 60 will drop into the 50s and even the 40s behind the
pneumonia front during the late morning and afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

There is a chance for showers across far northern Wisconsin on
Sunday night in the vicinity of a cold front that is expected to
stall there before moving back to the north again. There is a
slight chance for a wintry mix late in the night, but
precipitation totals should be no more than a trace.

Rain is possible over most of the area Monday night as a surface
low and mid level short wave trough move into northwest Wisconsin.
Another system, that is forecast to track farther southeast than
the previous one, will bring a chance for showers to locations
generally from the Fox Valley east to Lake Michigan Tuesday
afternoon. The chance for showers will spread across the rest of
the area Tuesday night as the system moves into Wisconsin.
Thunderstorms are possible in central and east central Wisconsin
throughout the night, and precipitation may mix with snow and then
change to all snow across the north after midnight. Thunder
chances come to an end by Wednesday morning and any mix or snow in
the north will change to rain as temperatures warm up during the
morning. Rain chances continue, mainly across the north, as the
system departs on Wednesday afternoon. There could still be some
lingering precipitation in the far north Wednesday night with a
change from rain to snow. Generally dry conditions will prevail on
Thursday but precipitation returns for Thursday night and Friday.
There is another chance for snow or a mix in the north Thursday
night but it should change to rain Friday morning.

Expect high temperatures to be well above normal Monday and
Tuesday. It will be cooler for the rest of the work week, with
highs below normal on Thursday and near or a little below normal
on Wednesday and Friday.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Good flying weather through this evening, with light winds and
mostly clear conditions. A back door cold front will then
approach north-central Wisconsin late tonight, bringing thickening
and lowering clouds to the far northern airports. This trend will
continue southeast across northeast Wisconsin on Sunday. Cannot
rule out a few showers and ifr cigs over far northern WI on
Sunday morning either.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....Kurimski
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......MPC



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