Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 251802
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
102 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU SEP 25 2014

WARM AND DRY AUTUMN WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

THE UPR FLOW ENTERING NOAM IS SPLIT...WITH A DEEP TROF OFF THE
WEST COAST AND ANOTHER BRANCH OF THE FLOW TO THE N ACRS AK. THE
SPLIT CONSOLIDATES DOWNSTREAM...INTO A BROAD BAND OF WESTERLIES
ACRS ERN CANADA. THAT RESULTS IN HIGH HEIGHTS AND WK UPR FLOW OVER
THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS...ESSENTIALLY A LARGE RIDGE WITH A STG
POS UPR HEIGHT ANOMALY INVOF JAMES BAY. THE WEST COAST TROF WL
WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY EDGES E...PROBABLY NOT GETTING CLOSE ENOUGH TO
INFLUENCE THE FCST AREA UNTIL THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD. WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES WL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY. THE DRY AIR WL ALLOW
FOR LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES...WITH ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
LOWS ENDING UP CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU SEP 25 2014

REMNANTS OF SHRTWV CURRENTLY GENERATING SHRA ACRS C/N-C WI WL
DEGENERATE INTO A SHEAR AXIS ACRS THE FCST AREA TDA...THEN
EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED INTO BROAD UPR LOW FORMING TO THE SW OF THE
AREA IN RESPONSE TO RIDGING BUILDING NEWD AHEAD OF THE WEST COAST
TROF. DRY AIR AT LOW-LEVELS IS ADVANCING BACK ACRS THE FCST AREA
FM THE SE EARLY THIS MORNING. THAT COMBINED WITH WEAKENING FORCING
WL CAUSE THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACRS THE AREA TO DISSIPATE...AND
THAT PROCESS WAS ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY. CLDS WL FOLLOW THE SAME
TREND...THOUGH IT WL TAKE LONGER. UPR MOISTURE WL LINGER LONGER
OVER E-C WI... RESULTING IN CI OR HIGH AC...WHICH WL THIN AND
ALLOW SOME SUNSHINE. MID-LVL MOISTURE WL LINGER IN A BAND FM SW TO
N-C WI...SO OPAQUE CLDS WL LINGER LONGER THERE. THE CLDS WL
IMPACT TEMPS. STARTED WITH A BLEND OF THE TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE
AND THEN TWEAKED TEMPS TO MATCH THE EXPECTED SKYCON TRENDS.

ANY LINGERING MID-CLDS ACRS THE NW PART OF THE CWA WL DISSIPATE
TNGT. MID-LVL RH PROG OFF THE ECMWF SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME PATCHY
MID-CLDS COULD WORK BACK NWD INTO SRN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA LATE.
STARTED WITH A BLEND OF THE COOLER GUIDANCE PRODUCTS...BUT WITH
MAINLY CLR SKIES EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST A PART OF THE NGT...LOWERD
MINS A BIT IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY COOLER SPOTS. ALSO ADDED PATCHY
FOG TO THE FCST.

SUN FOR THE WHOLE DAY FRI SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO EDGE UP A DEG OR
TWO OVER TDA IN THE E...AND EVEN MORE IN THE W.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU SEP 25 2014

A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST AS A
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTER OF THE CONTINENT. THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE PERIOD...SO A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND WILL DO.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT BUT WILL EXTEND WEST INTO
THE WESTERN LAKES REGION.  THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE QUIET AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.  THE PESKY UPPER LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY GENERATING LIGHT RAIN WILL MEANDER BACK NORTHWARD ON
SATURDAY.  UPPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN WITH THE LOW BUT MID AND LOW
LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY.  WILL THEREFORE SEE A HIGHER AMOUNT OF
CIRRUS...BUT THAT WONT STOP HIGHS FROM REACHING THE MIDDLE 70S AT
MOST LOCATIONS.  CONTINUED MILD AND QUIET ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
BLANKET OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.  LOWS FIRMLY IN THE 50S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE UPPER LOW FINALLY SHIFTS BACK SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD FORCE THE CIRRUS TO
DEPART.  THE FORECAST GETS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WHEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE
A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA.  THE GFS IS
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN OTHER GUIDANCE AND
APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER.  THINK THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN JUST IN CASE.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GENERATED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THERE WERE A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WITH MVFR CIGS AT MIDDAY BUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAD NO
CIGS OR VFR CIGS. EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO BECOME VFR AND SKIES TO
CLEAR. FOG SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT SURFACE FLOW
AND LITTLE OR NO CLOUD-COVER. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN LOW SPOTS LIKE AIRPORTS. SOME STRATUS MAY
ALSO DEVELOP WITH THE DENSE FOG. VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY
14Z FRIDAY WITH VFR CIGS.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG





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