Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 111809
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1209 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Monday
Issued at 257 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

Primary forecast issue is dealing with a period of snow over east
central Wisconsin mainly this morning. Then dealing with another
round of cold temperatures late tonight with wind chill values
approaching 20 below across the north.

A mid level short wave will track over the state today. Best RRQ
upper jet dynamics were south of the area, but the 850-700 fgen
region will lift into east central this morning before shifting
east of the area after the short wave axis passage. This will
lead to a period of snow across east central Wisconsin. Snow
amounts expected to be less than an inch for locations west of the
Fox River and an inch or two towards the lakeshore region. Its
possible, the far southeast portion of Manitowoc county could get
a 2-3 inch amount, but the higher amounts are expected to be over
southeast Wisconsin closer to a weak surface low passing by.

More clouds may approach northern Wisconsin later today into this
evening as a northern stream short wave passes over. This
northern stream wave will attempt to phase with the system working
into the ohio valley but more importantly will drag a cold front
across the state late today into this evening. A few flurries
could be associated with or near the cold front later today and
evening.

Current combination of winds late Sunday night into Monday
morning, with sub zero readings, producing wind chills 15 to 20
below.

Cold high pressure with below than normal temperatures will linger
into Monday.

Will issue a sps for the snow this morning and handle the wind
chills in the HWO for now.

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday
Issued at 257 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

The main highlights during this period will be the warm up
Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by cooler temperatures Thursday
and Friday followed by another warm up next weekend. Precipitation
is expected to run below normal for the period. Several periods
to focus on for precipitation chances. Will need to watch the
Tuesday period with return flow. There could be some light snow
across the far north. A chance of light snow may needed to be
added over the next day or two.

The chances for lake effect snow showers will be on the increase
later Wednesday night into Thursday night across the far north
with the return of the colder air. There are some indications that
the colder air will be a little slower to arrive on Thursday,
thus high temperatures may be adjusted upward over the next
several days. Otherwise, only made minor changes to account for
our typical warm spots during the day and cold spots at night.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1209 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

Clouds affecting MTW, GRB, and ATW will depart east in the
afternoon. Clear skies are expected into the evening as winds
increase from the west. Some mid-level clouds are expected to
return overnight, concentrated towards north-central Wisconsin and
RHI. No other significant weather is expected in the TAF period.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......Eckberg
AVIATION.......Uhlmann



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