Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 101758
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1158 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

COLD TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTH CENTRAL WI WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

ARCTIC AIR COVERED THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH H8 TEMPS
OF -20 TO -24 C. CYCLONIC NNW FLOW CONTINUED IN THE SFC-H8
LAYER...RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF LAKE-ENHANCED CLOUDS OVER
NC/C WI. DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A S/W
TROF HAD CLEARED THE SKIES OVER PARTS OF NE/EC WI. LITTLE PCPN
WAS OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHER THAN SCT LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THE FAR NORTH.

HAVE CONFINED PCPN CHANCES TO MAINLY VILAS COUNTY TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...AS INCOMING DRY ARCTIC AIR SHOULD KEEP LAKE-EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR. FAVORABLE NNW WIND
TRAJECTORIES WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...THEN BACK
WNW TOWARD DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO THE DEMISE
OF LAKE EFFECT. 900-850 MB RH PROGS SUGGEST THAT CLOUDS
WILL HANG TOUGH OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY...THEN
CLEAR RAPIDLY THIS EVENING (AWAY FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SNOW BELT). A DRY DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

USED A BLEND OF THE TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS TODAY...AND LOWER TO
MIDDLE TEENS ON THURSDAY. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...AND AROUND -10 F
AT SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IN NC WI. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TONIGHT...SO WIND CHILLS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 BLO ZERO RANGE...TOO BORDERLINE FOR
ANY WIND CHILL ADVISORY HEADLINES.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BEFORE A MORE ZONAL REGIME
TAKES OVER.  IN THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN...A DEEP EASTERN NOAM TROUGH
WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO SUNDAY.  THE COLDEST
PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  THE
ECMWF AND GFS COMPARE FAIRLY WELL IN REGARDS TO THE LOW LEVEL TEMPS
DURING THIS PERIOD SO WILL USE A BLEND.  THEN ALL SORTS OF TIMING
DIFFERENCES EXIST AS THE PATTERN BREAKS DOWN LATE THIS WEEKEND.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY QUIET...BREEZY AND COLD
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS DRIVEN SOUTHWARD BY A
CHANNELED VORT INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN WI AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  THE COMBO OF
TEMPS AND BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DROP WIND CHILLS INTO
THE TEENS BELOW ZERO.  THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY.  LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN BUT MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING.  COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
DEVELOP BUT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.  QUITE POSSIBLE
THAT TEMPS PEAK AT MIDDAY THEN FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THE
COLDEST TEMPS THEN ARRIVE ON FRIDAY NIGHT.  WITH A BRISK NORTHWEST
WIND AND TEMPS FALLING BELOW ZERO....A WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL
ADVISORY IS QUITE POSSIBLE.

REST OF THE FORECAST...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  WIND CHILLS WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND
SATURDAY MORNING.  FORECASTING TEMPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS QUITE A
CHALLENGE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION LATE AS
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION.  TEMPS HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO TANK
BEFORE THIS OCCURS...HOWEVER...AND WILL SIDE WITH THE COLDER
GUIDANCE.  CLOUDS WILL BE QUICKLY ON THE INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES.  ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
POSSIBLE...MOST LIKELY SUB-ADVISORY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
WITH THAT THOUGHT.  TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH LOW SNOW CHANCES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUED FROM KY50 TO KSTE TO KAUW/KCWA
NORTHWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
MUCH OF THESE CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION IS FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...MAINLY THE AIRPORT SITES
IN VILAS COUNTY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

 &&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......ECKBERG


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