Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 172347
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
647 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF WISCONSIN KEPT AN EASTERLY FLOW
OF...RELATIVELY...DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SKIES
CLEARED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT WINDS BROUGHT SOME LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS TO EASTERN WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE...THERE SHOULD BE A
GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WEAKENS AND MOVES ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDER...ENTER THE PICTURE IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE
TONIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASES AND SPREADS
EAST ON MONDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT NOW WITH THE
UPPER SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY TOWARDS WISCONSIN FROM LAKE WINNIPEG.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE...COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT COUPLED WITH LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERE
POTENTIAL LOOKS MINIMAL AS INSTABILITY APPEARS MODEST AND THERE
ARE WEAK WINDS ALOFT.

SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THEN ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AS SYSTEMS GO BY TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH IN
SPLIT FLOW. ANOTHER BREAK EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. LOTS OF MODEL DIFFERENCES BY THAT
POINT IN STRENGTH AND TIMING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED AT TIMES BY PRECIPITATION BUT
WILL BE MILDER THAN USUAL IN GENERAL. LOWS SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

MVFR CIGS STILL LINGERED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FOX VALLEY AND THEN
EXTENDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
MAIN CONCERN FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND MONDAY WILL BE THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. A WAVE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL WORK ACROSS
FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z. MAIN BATCH OF RAIN
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CROSS THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING. ALSO...MVFR CIGS ALONG
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE.
ONCE FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING...MAY BE A SMALL BREAK FOR MORE ACTIVITY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......ECKBERG






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