Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 250854
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
354 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

THE MAIN FRONTOGENETIC RAIN BAND CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTH
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WAS SITUATED ALONG THE WI/UPPER MI
BORDER. LITTLE ADDITIONAL PCPN WAS NOTED OVER THE FCST AREA...
BUT SCT SHOWERS WERE APPROACHING FROM SE MN/NE IA...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A S/W TROF.

DESPITE THE EARLY MORNING LULL...EXPECT SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SFC AND UPPER LOWS APPROACH
FROM THE WEST...AND A WARM FRONT EDGES NORTH TOWARD CENTRAL
WI. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE OF TSTMS OVER ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FCST TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER
THE FAR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...IN THE VCNTY OF THE WARM FRONT.
SPC HAS PLACED OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT...WEAK SFC-BASED INSTABILITY AND
STRONG SHEAR. TEMPERATURES ARE A TOUGH CALL...GIVEN A STRONG
THERMAL GRADIENT...LOW CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PCPN...SO DID NOT
STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S NORTHEAST TO THE LOW TO MID 60S FAR SOUTHWEST.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVG...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR NORTHERN
AND EASTERN COUNTIES...BUT SHOULD COME TO AN END OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO ABUNDANT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

ON TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE...EXCEPT OVER
NE WI...WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ARE ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

A COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS PART OF THE FORECAST
WITH MID LEVEL SYSTEMS IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS APPROACHING THE
REGION. SURFACE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE OUT OF THE EAST OR
NORTHEAST...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN EVEN ON DAYS WITHOUT
MUCH/ANY PRECIPITATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY ON TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR FROST...BUT SINCE THAT IS THE 4TH PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST LATER SHIFTS WILL MAKE THE CALL ON FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES. AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS NORTHWARD...SO THE NORTHWOODS MAY JUST REMAIN DRY.
THINGS LOOK DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN DOES NOT
ENTER THE PICTURE UNTIL SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...SO THE NORTHWOODS COULD END UP DRY
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THEY SHOULD BE WARMER FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BUT
STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS AND EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW EXPECTED NEXT
24 HRS AS MUCH OF NORTHEAST/NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS NORTH OF
STRONG E-W FRONTAL SYSTEM. PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST 26/00Z.
&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

PERSISTENT GUSTY ENE WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OVER
THE NORTHERN MARINE ZONES THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE PUSHED BACK THE
START TIME OF THE SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES TO 7 PM MONDAY...AS
WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE THERE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......JKL
MARINE.........KIECKBUSCH


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