Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGRB 310440
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1140 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES IS CURRENTLY ACRS SRN CANADA AND THE
NRN CONUS...HAS LIMITED AMPLITUDE...AND HAS A RIDGE OVER THE W AND
A TROF OVER THE HUDSON BAY RGN. THE MAIN CHG DURING THE FCST
PERIOD WL BE A SLOW AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN AMPLITUDE...WITH THE
UPR TROF EXPANDING SWD. THAT WL TILT THE UPR FLOW INTO THE FCST
AREA MORE NWLY WITH TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WARM...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND 4-8F DEG ABV NORMAL. BY EARLY NEXT WK THE UPR FLOW SHOULD
TILT NW ENOUGH TO BRING COOLER AIR FM CANADA INTO THE RGN...LIKELY
DROPPING TEMPS TO A LITTLE BLO NORMAL BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. PCPN
CHCS WILL BE LIMITED SINCE THE VERY HUMID AIR WL REMAIN TO OUR
S...AND THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THE UPR TROF WL STAY N. ALTHOUGH
ALL IT TAKES AT THIS TIME OF YEAR IS ONE CONVECTIVE EVENT TO
SUPPLY A NORMAL WEEKS WORTH OF PCPN...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT MOST
AREAS WL END UP RECEIVING BLO NORMAL PCPN FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MILD TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S MADE FOR PLEASANT
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...19Z WATER VAPOR SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH NE
MINNESOTA AND HEADING FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS FEATURE HAS
ALREADY KICKED OFF SCATTERED STORMS THAT WERE MOVING THROUGH NW
WISCONSIN. WITH SOME INSTABILITY IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND
LAPSE RATES OF 6-7K/KM...THESE STORMS SHOULD MAINTAIN THEMSELVES
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH. NOTHING SEVERE IS
EXPECTED AS CAPES ARE ONLY 500J/KG AT BEST...BUT WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT AND RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERTED-V-LIKE SIGNATURES...GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
TO THE NORTH.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL
ABOUT MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SCATTERED CLOUD
COVER DEVELOPS...WITH BROKEN CLOUDS TO THE NORTHAS BETTER QG
FORCING GIVES SOME ADDED LIFT.WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN...STAYED CLOSE TO LAST NIGHTS LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH A HINT OF THE BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE THROWN
IN.

FRIDAYS SET UP LOOKS A LOT SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD THIS AFTERNOON.
SUNNY AND DRY TO START THE DAY...WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CU IN THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE
MEAN FLOW WHICH COULD KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH. WITH NE
WI SITTING ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL...HAVE
DOUBTS SHOWERS WILL EVEN DEVELOP. FRIDAYS SHORTWAVE WILL NOT BE AS
DEFINED TODAYS WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER
HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLATED PCPN DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO THE LFQ OF A STRONG 300MB JETSTREAK BRUSHING NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS FRI AFTERNOON...THOUGH CONFINED
PCPN TO ONLY THE FAR NORTH. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH CONTINUED BREEZY WEST WINDS THROUGH
NOT AS HIGH AS WE SAW TODAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

DAYTIME TEMPS WL CONT ABV NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS...THEN EVENTUALLY
COOL AS THE UPR FLOW TILTS NWLY. STAYED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE
TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.

HARD TO GET A HANDLE ON SPECIFICS OF THE PCPN FCST GIVEN THE
PATTERN. PCPN CHCS WL BE TIED TO SML SCALE SHRTWVS ROUNDING THE
BASE OF SLOWLY STRENGTHENING LNGWV TROF. CURRENT OP MODEL SUITE
NOT VERY ENCOURAGING FOR THE PCPN WE/VE BEEN CARRYING FOR SAT
NGT...WITH MANY OF THE MODELS NOW TAKING THAT THROUGH TO THE S OF
THE FCST AREA. LATE SUN/SUN NGT LOOK BETTER FOR PCPN AT THIS
POINT. BUT THEN AGAIN IN A PATTERN LIKE THIS...THINGS COULD LOOK
TOTALLY DIFFERENT TOMORROW. STUCK WITH CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS FOR
SAT NGT...AND AGAIN ON SUN NGT.

NO SIG CHGS MADE TO THE EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED
ON A BROAD BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
ONTARIO COULD IMPACT FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN BUT THINK THAT THERE
WILL BE LITTLE OR NOTHING ON THE WISCONSIN SIDE OF THE BORDER.
VFR CIGS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN ALONG
WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT THE ODDS OF ANY OF THE
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE TAF SITES SEEM LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THEM OUT
OF THE TAFS. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET ONCE
AGAIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......MG



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.