Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 160342
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1042 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2014

A LITTLE WARMER WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...THEN DRY
AND COOLER SUNDAY.

THE UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM REMAINS QUITE AMPLIFIED...WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST...AND A TROF IN THE EAST. ALTHOUGH WE/VE
BEEN ANTICIPATING A DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW...THAT HAS TAKEN
LONGER THAN EXPECTED TO BEGIN...MAINLY SINCE IT/S TAKEN A LITTLE
LONGER THAN EXPECTED FOR AMPLITUDE AT HIGH LATITUDES TO PEAK.
DEAMPLIFICATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR...WITH A MORE ZONAL
REGIME LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A ROLLERCOASTER...WITH THE COOLEST DAY
LIKELY BEING SUNDAY...AND THE WARMEST LIKELY TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE TOMORROW...AND AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WL RECEIVE AT LEAST SOME PCPN DURING THE
PERIOD AND A FEW SPOTS COULD RECEIVE GENEROUS AMNTS...THE OVERALL
PATTERN FAVORS BLO NORMAL PCPN AT MOST LOCATIONS.

THE WARMER PATTERN SUGGESTED BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEYOND
THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD THE PAST FEW DAYS IS NOW PRETTY MUCH
GONE. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A WARMUP LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THAT
NOW LOOKS MORE LIKE A SHORT-LIVED EPISODE WITH A FAIRLY QUICK
RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2014

SURFACE HIGH OVER INDIANA AND OHIO IS SLIPPING OFF TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO
WISCONSIN AND THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF CUMULUS CLOUDS WHERE
DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED THE UPPER 50S OR HIGHER. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
CLEAR SKIES BEFORE MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH
AND SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS.

A 50 KT 500MB JET WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS IOWA. NOT THE BEST
UPPER SUPPORT FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT THERE SHOULD
BE A PERIOD OF DECENT CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
BROKEN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MIGHT BE A FEW STORMS
WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BUT SEVERE STORMS LOOK UNLIKELY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2014

THE MAIN CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY IS RELATED TO THE DELAY IN THE
FLATTENING OF THE UPR FLOW. WITH STRONGER NWLY UPR FLOW NOW
HANGING ON LONGER...THE COOL DRY CANADIAN AIR MASS SETTLING INTO
THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF SATURDAY/S COLD FROPA WILL BECOME
BETTER ESTABLISHED ACRS THE AREA AND REMAIN LONGER. THE MAIN
IMPLICATION OF THAT IS COOLER TEMPERATURES SAT NGT AND SUN NGT.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 30S ACRS N-C WI AGAIN...BUT
STOPPED SHORT OF LOWERING MINS THAT FAR. STILL...NEW FCST MINS
BOTH NIGHTS REPRESENT ABOUT A 3-6 DEG DECREASE FM THE PREV FCST.

THE TIMING OF THE PCPN EVENT NEXT WEEK STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...
BUT IT SEEMS TO BE FOCUSING ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED FORECAST INITIALIZATION GRIDS GENERATED FROM A BROAD
BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS SEEMED REASONABLE. NO SIG
CHGS WERE NECESSARY...THOUGH TEMPS MAY NOT BE QUITE WARM ENOUGH
AT THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2014

A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WAS NOW
MOVING INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THE RAIN WAS
MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND COULD WORK INTO FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN
TOWARDS 12Z. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CIGS WILL FALL INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY IN THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND RIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN
NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. COULD A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
AT KGRB WHERE FUNNELLING OF THE WINDS DOWN THE BAY ARE EXPECTED.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED LATER SATURDAY EVENING...
BUT AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TOWARDS 12Z SUNDAY. THE FOG MAY BE
LOCALLY DENSE IN SOME SPOTS IF WE DO GET SUBSTANTIAL RAINS
SATURDAY.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......ECKBERG






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