Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 230353
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1053 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN
AREA OF HI PRES BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE MAIN FCST
OBSTACLES TO BE ON TEMPS FOR TNGT AND SAT. THE ISSUE FOR TNGT IS
HOW FAST TEMPS CAN FALL BEFORE HIGHER CLOUDS ARRIVE AND WHETHER AN
ADVY IS NECESSARY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE ISSUE FOR SAT IS HOW WARM
CAN WE GET AS CLOUDS THICKEN AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE SW.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED THE AREA OF HI PRES WAS
SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT
WINDS PREVAILED ACROSS NE WI. VSBL SATL IMAGERY DID SHOW A BAND OF
HI CLOUDS GRADUALLY APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AHEAD OF A SFC
LOW PARKED OVER THE CNTRL HI PLAINS.

THE HI PRES WL GRADUALLY SLIDE TOWARD THE ERN GREAT LAKES TNGT...
BUT REMAIN THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING NE WI WEATHER. MORE
OF A SW COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AN ONSET OF WEAK WAA
WL BEGIN TO TAP WARMER AIR OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. THAT BEING
SAID...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES (OTHER THAN SOME HI CLOUDS ARRIVING
OVRNGT)...A DRY AIR MASS OVERHEAD AND LIGHT SFC WINDS WL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S NORTH...AROUND 40 DEGS SOUTH. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR FROST ACROSS THE NORTH AND A
POSSIBLE HEADLINE. IT WL BE A RACE AGAINST TIME WHETHER OR NOT THE
HI CLOUDS CAN OVERSPREAD NRN WI BEFORE TEMPS FALL BELOW 40 DEGS.
HAVE DECIDED TO PLAY IT SAFE AND ISSUE A SHORT DURATION FROST
ADVY. DUE TO A SW FLOW TAKING OVER THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND...THIS
MAY WELL BE THE LAST FROST HEADLINE UNTIL NEXT AUTUMN.

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ON
SAT ARE A SUBTROPICAL UPR HI SITUATED OVER FLORIDA WITH A RDG AXIS
NW INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND A CLOSED UPR LOW LOCATED OVER THE
CNTRL ROCKIES. A PREVAILING S-SW WIND BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WL
TAP GULF MOISTURE AND QUICKLY BRING THIS MOISTURE NWD THRU THE
CNTRL CONUS INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES. MID AND HI CLOUDS WL CONT
TO OVERSPREAD NE WI ON SAT WITH WAA CONTINUING THRU THE DAY. SOME
MODELS ATTEMPT TO GENERATE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE INITIAL DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...BELIEVE
ANY PCPN WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT NGT. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPR 60S NEAR LAKE MI...MID 70S FROM CNTRL TO FAR NE WI.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND
AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK AS JET ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES. WHILE WE HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR ALMOST ALL OF THE FORECAST IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER...IT/S JUST DIFFICULT TO TELL
SEVERAL DAYS AHEAD.

THERE SHOULD BE AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS...WHICH WILL KEEP DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES LOW AND ALSO REDUCE THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. A
WEAK COLD FRONT MIGHT GIVE US A DRY DAY WEDNESDAY AND PART OF
THURSDAY BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN. THE GREATEST RAINFALL
TOTALS LOOK TO BE IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE BEST LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND JET DYNAMICS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE OVER C/EC WI TONIGHT...WITH THICKENING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ARRIVING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...WITH S-SW WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH



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