000
FXUS63 KGRB 060000
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
600 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

SATELLITE SHOWING A FEW OPEN PATCHES ON LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH WAS
ABLE TO PRODUCE THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY ACROSS DOOR...KEWAUNEE...
AND MANITOWOC COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH A FAVORABLE NE FETCH.
HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES AND CLOUDS HAVE DIMINISHED QUICKLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS INCREASE... DRIER AIR MOVES
IN...AND WINDS VEER TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST ONTARIO PROVIDED FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND
SUNNY SKIES WITH ONLY SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION.
FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE TEMPS...CLOUDS AND
PRECIP CHANCES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM NORTHEAST ONTARIO THIS
EVENING...INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. THURSDAY MORNING. RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE REGION TONIGHT. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AND STRONGEST WAA DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL FALL TO BELOW ZERO EXCEPT CLOSER TO LAKE
MICHIGAN.

WAA REALLY RAMPS UP ON THURSDAY...AS WESTERN FLOW ALOFT FINALLY
MAKES IT INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB FROM
AROUND -10C THIS EVENING...TO AROUND 0C THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE WAA
WILL ALSO INCREASE MOISTURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER AT MID/UPPER LEVELS FIRST...THEN AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...SOME LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD
DEVELOP. MODELS ARE SPLIT ON IF THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM DURING
THE DAY...BUT EVEN IF THEY DO NOT...SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY AS
MID/HIGH CLOUDS PUSH IN. ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR PRECIP
ON THURSDAY...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...AS DRY AIR LOOKS TO
HOLD ON AND BEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND SHORTWAVE REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TYPE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ARE
THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE SYSTEM AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
WILL RESULT IN A LAYER OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR...GENERALLY IN THE
950-750MB RANGE...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. BUFKIT TIME SECTIONS SHOWED
SOME DRY AIR...SO THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
ANY PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY FALLS. WPC GUIDANCE HAS AT LEAST SOME
MEASURABLE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT NO MEASURABLE SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING
RAIN FOR THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HAVE NOTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE DRY AIR AND LOW GUIDANCE POPS. MENTIONED
FREEZING RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AND SLEET. CHANGED WEATHER
TYPE TO SLEET OR SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH RAIN ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S ON FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT WARM ADVECTION SHOULD KICK IN AGAIN SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY SO A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL
BY MONDAY. THERE MAY BE A CLIPPER SYSTEM OR TWO FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT TIMING AMONG MODELS IS UNCERTAIN...LEADING TO A LOW
CONFIDENCE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT
COLDER THAN NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 559 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS VERY DRY THUS DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS...EXCEPT FOR CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS DECK THAT
WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. THUS
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.

A COUPLE WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARE ALSO FORECAST TO DRIFT
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FORECAST TO DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY 00Z FRIDAY. ALREADY
SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING EAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS WILL MAINLY AFFECT RHI/IMT
AREAS LATER THIS EVENING.

MVFR CLOUD DECK ALSO DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS IOWA INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS.
CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THIS AREA OF MVFR CLOUDS WILL NOT AFFECT
ANY OF THE FORECAST AREA TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THEY MAY
WORK THEIR WAY NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
AFFECTING CWA...AUW AND RHI TAF SITES BY MID-MORNING. CONFIDENCE
OF SEEING A MVFR DECK IS LOW...BUT GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS OPTED ON
THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. DID REMOVE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY GIVEN STUBBORN VERY DRY AIRMASS
LINGERING THERE.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....BERSCH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ESB