000
FXUS63 KGRB 270347
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1047 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...
THEN MUCH COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAJOR AMPLIFICATION OF THE LNGWV PATTERN INVOF NOAM WILL OCCUR
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS CLOSED UPR LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE LAKE
WINNIPEG REGION SHIFTS E AND THEN TURNS SE. IN ADDITION TO THE
RESULTING UPR TROF OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES RGN...ANOTHER LNGWV
TROF WL BE OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND A STG RIDGE WL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE DEVELOPING PATTERN WL BE
VERY STABLE. ONCE IN PLACE...IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. BUT GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE COLD
AIR WITHIN THE TROFS WL ALLOW THE FLOW ACRS THE CONUS TO
WEAKEN...AND THE MAIN WESTERLIES TO REFORM BACK N ACRS CANADA.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE FCST PERIOD WL
QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK. THEN TEMPERATURES WL GRADUALLY REBOUND
BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS AS THE COOL AIR ACRS THE REGION
MODIFIES.

THE BEST CHC FOR SIG PCPN WL BE EARLY IN THE FCST PERIOD...AS THE
UPR LOW CROSSES THE RGN. BUT THE COVERAGE OF THE SIG PCPN WITH
THE UPR LOW IS LIKELY TO BE SCT...AND THE GENERAL NWLY UPR FLOW
THAT WL DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FAVORS
BLO NORMAL PCPN AMNTS. THE LACK OF PCPN ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THE
PAST FEW WEEKS IS BECOMING APPARENT IN THE FORM OF BROWN LAWNS AND
SLUGGISH GROWTH OF CROPS IN AREA FARMS. PCPN TOTALS FOR THE PAST
30 DAYS HAVE GENERALLY ONLY BEEN 25-50 PCT OF NORMAL ACRS MOST OF
THE FCST AREA. OVER THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS...THE MOST SIG PCPN
DEFICIT HAS BEEN OVER E-C WI...WHERE PCPN TOTALS HAVE BEEN LESS
THAN 25 PCT OF NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN.  A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOP ALONG THIS
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL UPPER PENINSULA BUT THINK THEY WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.  THOUGH
LOW STRATUS REMAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN...CLEARING SKIES HAVE MOVED INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WHERE MIXING HAS DROPPED DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. AN
AREA OF CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.  OTHERWISE...THE FOCUS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL
REVOLVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA.  AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL RESPECTIVELY BY LATE
TONIGHT.  AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...MODELS DEPICT A RELATIVELY
NARROW RIBBON OF HIGHER THETAE ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION THAT
MOVES INTO N-C WISCONSIN BY 09Z AND THE FOX VALLEY TO IRON MOUNTAIN
CORRIDOR BY 12Z.  WITHIN THIS THETAE RIBBON...MODELS ESTIMATE
ELEVATED CAPES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG WHICH SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. QG FORCING WILL BE INCREASING AT THE SAME TIME AND
PWATS WILL BE NEARING 1.5 INCHES.  SO WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES IN
THE LIKELY RANGE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE AND A CHANCE ELSEWHERE.  IF STORMS DO
DEVELOP...SOME COULD CONTAIN SUB-SEVERE SIZED HAIL.  EFFECTIVE
SHEARS 20-25 KNOTS SUGGESTS SEVERE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE MORNING
AND EXIT OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
BENEATH THE UPPER LOW...AMPLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE IN THE MORNING.  WET BULB ZERO TEMPS BELOW
10KFT WILL PROVIDE A THREAT OF HAIL WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO APPROACHES SEVERE
LIMITS.  WILL KEEP THIS MENTION IN THE HWO.  HIGHS COOLING TO THE
MIDDLE 60S NORTH TO MIDDLE 70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

PCPN WITH THE DEPARTING UPR LOW COULD LINGER INTO SUN EVE...ESP
IN THE EAST. MAINTAINED CHC POPS FOR THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH IT/S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOMETHING COULD LINGER PAST
MIDNIGHT...THERE WAS NOT ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR THAT TO DRAG POPS
THROUGH THE WHOLE NIGHT. SINCE WINDS WL LIKELY STAY UP DURING THE
NGT AND COOLER AIR WL FIRST BE WORKING INTO THE AREA...EDGED MINS
TOWARD A BLEND OF THE WARMER GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.

THE FCST AREA WL STILL BE ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE UPR JET
MON...SO ANY SML SCALE DISTURBANCE THAT WORKS ACRS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTN COULD EASILY GENERATE ISOLD-SCT SHRA. BUT WITH NO
FORCING APPARENT ON THE MODELS ATTM...KEPT FCST DRY. IT LOOKS LIKE
A DISTURBANCE WL DROP SWD ACRS THE AREA TUE...SO KEPT CHC POPS AT
THAT TIME.

SIG MOISTURE WL REMAIN WELL S OF THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE
FCST PERIOD...SO THE PROSPECT FOR SIG WIDESPREAD PCPN DOES NOT
LOOK GOOD. BUT THERE WL STILL BE AMPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SCT LGT
PCPN AS SML SCALE SHRTWVS DROP SEWD ACRS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING THOSE CHCS DIMINISHES RAPIDLY AS ONE GOES FARTHER OUT
INTO THE FCST.

NO SIG CHGS WERE NEEDED TO THE BROAD-BASED EXTENDED FCST
INITIALIZATION GRIDS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WEST CENTRAL WI
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT TO MAINTAIN SOME OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS AS THEY
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWERING
CIGS. KEPT THUNDER OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME GIVEN EXPECTED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TE