000
FXUS63 KGRB 271743
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1143 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...AND REACH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...
WITH NO THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS
EXPECTED IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...
THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.

USED A BLEND OF THE TOP-PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR TEMPERATURES
THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR A RECENT COLD BIAS...AND DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TYPICAL
COLD SPOTS FOR MIN TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S BOTH DAYS...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS
BLO ZERO.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST...AND A
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO A CLOSED CYCLONE OVER
CALIFORNIA CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
WARMER...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL...TEMPERATURES UNTIL THE TROUGH
AXIS PASSES THROUGH WISCONSIN AND NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS TO THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

THERE MAY BE A MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION...PROBABLY LESS THAN AN
INCH...IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS WEEKEND
AS A SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASS SOUTH OF THE STATE. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL TREK FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND BRING SNOW CHANCES
TO WISCONSIN FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE STATE. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW. NOT PARTICULARLY CONFIDENT
WHAT HAPPEN WITH THIS SYSTEM...THERE COULD BE HEAVY SNOW BUT IF
WARMER AIR REACHES THE AREA A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED
FOR THE LATEST DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM. ONCE THE SYSTEM HAS PASSED
EAST OF THE AREA A RETURN TO COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES BUT WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER THE MID SECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH