Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 102354
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
654 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance
and new information added to update section

.UPDATE...
Issued at 646 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

The severe thunderstorm threat has diminished, so the severe
thunderstorm watch for Winnebago, Calumet and Manitowoc counties
has been cancelled. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
will continue to dissipate as instability wanes and upper forcing
shifts east.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Friday
Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Convection trends through the evening hours the primary issue.
The upper low continues to drop southeastward over the state this
afternoon while a cold front extended from around central
Wisconsin to southeast Iowa. Convection early this afternoon were
located with the upper low over the northwest half of Wisconsin
and along the cold front over Iowa. Best shear values and
instability were located over southern Wisconsin and just reaching
the far southern portion of the forecast area. As a result,
timing suggest we still have a short window of strong to severe
storms over east central Wisconsin this afternoon and early
evening until the front goes through. Showers and isolated storms
will continue to linger this evening as the upper low tracks
through.

Plenty of clouds and isolated showers expected for much of Friday
with the cyclonic flow. high pressure building into the state
from the west late in the day will begin to decrease clouds from
west to east.

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Thursday
Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

A high pressure ridge begins building in over the northern
Midwest late in the weekend into next week. Some showers are
possible off and on through next week, but little or no
thunderstorm activity is expected. Temperatures will be at or
slightly above normal in general.
&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 646 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Scattered showers and isolated storms will dissipate after sunset,
with only a few light showers expected to linger over far
northern WI overnight. The main aviation concern will be
widespread MVFR/IFR ceilings, which will spread southeast across
the area tonight. The low ceilings will gradually rise Friday
morning, with VFR conditions expected in north central/central WI
by late morning/midday, and in northeast and east central WI by
early to mid afternoon. A few light showers may redevelop on
Friday due to cyclonic northerly flow and a weak upper level
disturbance, but will not mention in the TAFs at this time.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for WIZ022-
040-050.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........Kieckbusch
SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ML
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch



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