Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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866
FXUS63 KGRB 301111
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
511 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Thursday
Issued at 321 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Clouds were increasing from west to east early this morning ahead
of an approaching mid level low seen on water vapor imagery over
the Twin Cities. This system will bring moisture back east, as
well as the chance for showers Today through Thursday as it slowly
tracks through the western Great Lakes region. Precipitation will
mainly be in the form of rain today, with some snow possibly
mixing in across the north and west. Given high temperatures today
are expected to be above freezing, snowfall accumulations should
be minimal. The best chance for precipitation today will be out to
the west closer to the mid level low and better moisture.

Precipitation chances tonight will be a bit better as the main mid
level low tracks through the cwa. Despite the fairly low QPF amounts,
kept POPs high tonight as this event still looks to be a high
coverage low QPF event. In other words most locations are expected
to measure, however amounts will be fairly light. With cooler
temperatures during the overnight hours snowfall is expected to
accumulate, generally in the 0.5 to 1 inch range. The highest
amounts will be across Vilas County,

By Thursday the aforementioned low will be tracking to the east,
with waning POPs as the day wears on and the lifting mechanism
subsides. Highest POPs will still be across Vilas County with a
boost from Lake Effect Snow from Lake Superior. Daytime heating
on the surface should keep snowfall amounts on Thursday fairly
limited, however Vilas County could grind out another few tenths
of an inch in more persistent LES bands. Snowfall totals over
Vilas County could amount to 1 to 2 inches tonight and Thursday.

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday
Issued at 321 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Thursday night through Saturday night should be dry across the
area as a surface low and mid level cyclone move away from the
state and high pressure approaches. Far north central Wisconsin
will be the exception with snow chances through Saturday morning,
but amounts there should be minor.

An approaching mid level trough and surface cold front will bring
precipitation chances back to the area for Sunday into Sunday
evening. This should produce mostly snow, but there may be some
rain or a mix of rain and snow in eastern, and parts of central,
Wisconsin Sunday afternoon. Precipitation chances return for late
Monday night and Tuesday.

Temperatures are expected to be above normal, but generally only
a few degrees, for the rest of this week through the first half of
next week. Though warmer than normal, it will likely feel much
colder due to the mild temperatures we have experienced this fall.
&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 511 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Clouds will continue to increase and lower today as an upper low
drifts through the western Great Lakes region. VFR cigs will
eventually give way to MVFR cigs with scattered rain or snow
showers. These showers will work their way over central and north
central Wisconsin today, then east central Wisconsin this evening
with MVFR vsbys associated with this activity. One half to one
inch of snowfall accumulation is possible tonight as colder air
changes the rain and snow showers over to all snow.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....Kurimski
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......Kurimski



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