Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 242244
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
544 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/SPRINKLES...CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE
ALL SHORT TERM CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AT MIDDAY TODAY
IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN ON
TUESDAY AS IT APPROACHES THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. A SURFACE LOW
IN EASTERN ONTARIO WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY
TOWARD HUDSON BAY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE CYCLONE...WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING
ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
OVER THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD DIE OFF AROUND SUNSET WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE DURING THE
EVENING...BUT THEY SHOULD NOT DIE OFF COMPLETELY AND THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME GUSTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN THEY WERE TODAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD
BE NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

STACKED UPPER LOW SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEPART TO THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
DIURNALLY DECREASE ON THE FRINGES OF THE UPPER LOW TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN INCREASE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN BEFORE
DECREASING LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM PLUMMETING TOO
MUCH.

DUE TO COOL START WEDNESDAY EVENING ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT...COOLEST OVERNIGHT LOWS OF THE WEEK
LIKELY FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S
SHOWING UP OVER THE COLD SPOTS OF THE NORTH. WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S AT THE ONSET...SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. PROGS INITIALLY DEVELOP AN
INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS IS
MORE NORTH AND SLOWER WITH THIS SURFACE LOW AND SPREADS MORE PCPN
INTO AT LEAST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE ECMWF WAS MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS FEATURE.

H850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK FOR A TREND OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 542 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

NOT MUCH CHG IN CONDITIONS AS THE FCST AREA WL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DEEP COOL CYCLONIC FLOW. CLDS WL DECR SOME
OVERNIGHT...THEN INCR AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS PROBABLY
WON/T BE AS STG TOMORROW AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO
WEAKEN...AND WINDS ABV THE SFC DIMINISH AS WELL.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI



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