Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 191736

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1236 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Saturday
Issued at 419 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Mid level warm advection will produce middle and high clouds that
will combine with a cool northeast wind from Lake Michigan to
hold temperatures down 10 to 15 degrees below normal today. SOme
sprinkles or very light rain could fall from the clouds in central
Wisconsin this afternoon but it should stay generally dry.

Cloudy skies will hold temperatures close to normal tonight
despite a cool wind from the lake. A strong upper trough lifting
northeast from Nebraska will produce upper diffluence and low
level warm advection that will result in a steady rain for
Saturday. Some elevated thunderstorms are possible north of the
warm front over the southern part of the forecast area. Highs
Saturday will be held well below normal due to the clouds, rain
and east northeast winds.

.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday
Issued at 419 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

There is a chance for showers, and possibly some thunderstorms, Saturday
night with a low pressure system from the Plains passing west of
the forecast area. Sunday should be dry at most locations in the
dry slot of the system, though there could still be some showers
in north central Wisconsin into Sunday night before the system
departs. Another surface low and a mid level trough moving in
from the northwest will bring rain back to the area, mainly Monday
night and Tuesday. Rain chances could linger into Wednesday
morning in eastern Wisconsin. Model differences resulted in just
some areas of slight chance PoPs through the end of the forecast.

Highs will be cooler than normal on Sunday due to clouds and rain
and from Tuesday through Thursday in a more northwest flow aloft.
Near normal temperatures should prevail on Monday.

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Good flying weather through tonight with just some
high clouds this afternoon and mid clouds tonight. A low pressure
system will bring rain and IFR conditions Saturday afternoon and
Saturday night with gusty easterly surface winds. Showers should
end Sunday with conditions improving to MVFR by afternoon.



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