Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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272
FXUS63 KGRB 040901
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
301 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Monday
Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Light snow was moving into western Wisconsin as of 08Z, ahead of
a mid level trough that was over the Plains. As the trough moves
into the Great Lakes Region today, snow timing and amounts are
the main forecast concerns.

The 00Z GRB sounding revealed plenty of dry air with the exception
the 900mb-850mb layer that was just below a strong inversion. The
DVN and MPX soundings were not as dry. Moisture is expected to
deepen enough overnight to possibly bring a dusting of snow to
central Wisconsin by 12Z. Snow will spread across the forecast
area during the morning and continue this afternoon.

Think that totals should be in the 2 to 4 inch range across central
and parts of east central Wisconsin today, with the highest totals
in central Wisconsin. It should be slightly warmer farther east,
with highs above freezing, which could melt some of the snow
resulting in lower totals. Even warmer air along Lake Michigan
shoreline should keep snow amounts even lower there.

There could be up to an inch of accumulation during the evening
before this system departs, generally in the far northeast part of
the area. Dry conditions should prevail after midnight and through
Monday. Clouds will keep temperatures from dropping much during
the night.

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday
Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

A low pressure system over the northern Midwest will strengthen
as it drifts northeast into Canada toward Hudson Bay. The low will
pull cold air south from Canada into Wisconsin. Temperatures will
drop to at or below normal for this time of year starting
Wednesday and continuing through next weekend. Normal high
temperatures are around 30 in the Fox River Valley region and mid
to upper 20s for northern Wisconsin. Normal lows range from around
15 degrees in the Fox Valley to around 10 degrees in northern
Wisconsin.

For the work week, there is a slight chance for light snow across
the area on Tuesday, but moisture will be limited and snowfall
accumulation should generally be under an inch. Starting
Wednesday, moisture from Lake Superior will fuel periodic lake
effect snows over far northern Wisconsin for several days starting
Wednesday.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1058 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

MVFR ceilings remained across much of the region late this
evening, but were breaking up a bit over parts of central and east
central WI. Conditions will deteriorate Sunday morning as light
snow overspreads the region. Expect the snow to arrive in the
AUW/CWA areas around 12z, and RHI/GRB/ATW/MTW areas between
14z-16z. The heaviest snow should occur during the afternoon
hours, when IFR and localized LIFR conditions are likely. The snow
should start to taper off in central WI late Sunday afternoon, and
over the rest of the region in the early to mid evening.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
evening FOR WIZ031-037>039-048>050.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
evening FOR WIZ030-035-036-045.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ML
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch



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