Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 151726
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Friday
Issued at 405 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

A weak cold front was moving through western WI early this
morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms persisted ahead of
the front overnight, but had diminished in the past couple hours.
Recent heavy rain, abundant low-level moisture and light winds
had resulted in areas of fog, locally dense in spots. The fog is
expected to dissipate within a couple hours after sunrise.

Precipitation chances will be hard to pinpoint over the next
couple days, with several weak short-wave trofs and weak surface
boundaries expected to move through the region. Suspect the best
chances will occur over far northeast WI this afternoon, and over
the entire area Friday afternoon, when diurnal instability will be
greatest.

Very deep mixing to 750-700 mb is anticipated today, which
should allow temperatures to soar into the 80s and lower 90s.
Have increased winds, with gusts expected to reach 25 to 30 mph,
especially over northern WI. Less humid and slightly cooler
readings are expected tonight and Friday, with lows in the
middle 50s to lower 60s, and highs in the lower to middle 80s.

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday
Issued at 405 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

Low amplitude flow will prevail over the northern CONUS early on,
so one or more of the 00Z models had QPF over at least part of
the area Friday night and Saturday. They bring a significant
upper trough through Wisconsin Saturday night into early Sunday as
a surface low passes from southwest to northeast across the
state. This will bring an even better chance for showers and
storms Saturday night, and the SPC day 3 convective outlook has a
marginal risk for severe over much of the area, with the exception
of the north.

Cooler temperatures and less active weather, at least as far as
convection, can be expected in cold advection behind the departing
system. Highs will be near or a little below normal through at
least the middle of next week. The next chance for showers and
storms will be from Monday night through Tuesday evening as
another short wave and a surface low pass through the western
Great Lakes. Generally dry conditions should then prevail through
the end of the forecast.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

Scattered or isolated showers and thunderstorms are
possible this afternoon and evening and again Friday, but it will
be VFR otherwise.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....Kieckbusch
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......RDM



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