Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 252301
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
601 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

A SEASONABLY COOL AND RATHER SHOWERY PERIOD.

SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE AMPLIFICATION EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS CENTER OF UPR ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS WWD
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND RIDGE BUILDS NWD THROUGH WRN
CANADA. THAT WL LEAD TO A TRANSITION TO A NWLY UPR FLOW FOR THE
FCST AREA. AMPLITUDE IS LIKELY TO PEAK EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT ONCE
IN PLACE...THE NWLY UPR FLOW WL PROBABLY PERSIST INTO THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND.

THE NWLY UPR FLOW WL KEEP WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS
SUPPRESSED WELL TO OUR S...SO TEMPERATURES WL PROBABLY END UP
AVERAGING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS
NEAR THE MAIN POLAR FRONT WL REMAIN TO OUR S. BUT THE COMBINATION
OF SHRTWVS DROPPING THOUGH THE RGN AND INSTABILITY FM BEING ON
THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET AND WITHIN FAIRLY DEEP UPR TROF WL BE
CONDUCIVE TO AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION AT TIMES. BEST GUESS IS PCPN
AMNTS WL END UP NR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE
WEEKEND. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD WANE
BY MID EVENING ONCE THE SUN SETS. A 500MB TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. MAIN ENERGY
WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD STAY WEST OF OUR AREA. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS
AGAIN INDICATE 500 J/KG OF CAPE...THEREFORE EXPECTED SOME MORE
INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WEST
AND NORTH OF THE FOX VALLEY. EXPECTING A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE ON
FRIDAY...THUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH. DUE TO COOL BIAS ON MAX TEMPERATURES ON
THE GUIDANCE...TRENDED A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER AT MOST PLACES AWAY
FROM THE LAKE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

LINGERED POPS FROM TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW EVENING. AFTER THAT...DRY
WX EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF FRI NGT...SAT...AND AT LEAST MOST OF
SAT NGT AS SFC RIDGE CROSSES THE AREA. PCPN CHCS WL RETURN SUN AS
SPEED MAX/SHRTWV DIG SE FM THE NRN PLAINS. THE BEST FORCING WL
PROBABLY BYPASS THE AREA TO THE WEST...BUT ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR PCPN
TO WARRANT TAKING POPS FOR WRN PART OF THE FCST AREA UP TO LIKELY
FOR SUNDAY. DRY AIR LINGERING OVER THE E COULD HOLD PCPN OFF MOST
OF THE DAY...SO ENDED UP WITH RATHER SHARP W-E GRADIENT IN POPS.
STUCK CLOSE TO BLEND OF TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS FOR
TEMPS...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS LAKESIDE.

NO SIG CHG TO EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED ON A BROAD
BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. RESOLVING PCPN CHCS DURING THIS PERIOD
WL BE DIFFICULT DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS HANDLING OF NUMEROUS
SHRTWVS DROPPING SE IN THE NWLY UPR FLOW. CURRENT FCST HAS POPS IN
ALL PERIODS...THOUGH IT IS UNLIKELY ANY GIVEN AREA WL ACTUALLY END
UP SEEING RAIN EVERY DAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

ISOLATED MVFR CIGS WITH SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL LINGER
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AGAIN FOR FRIDAY...WITH SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE
IN THE DAY.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TDH


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