Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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154
FXUS63 KGRB 032046
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
246 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

IMPRESSIVE LITTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKING ITS WAY OUT OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE SNOW FINALLY ENDING OVER
EASTERN WI. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER NORTH
CENTRAL WI AS WELL...WITH ONLY FLURRIES ELSEWHERE IN THE EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION...LOOKS TO ANY
LINGERING SNOW TO END BY EARLY EVENING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NORTH CENTRAL WI WHERE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE
AS THE FLOW REMAINS NW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATIONS...UNDER AN INCH OR TWO...AS MOISTURE
DECREASES AND TRAJECTORIES BECOME LESS FAVORABLE OUT OF THE WEST.

CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT AS MODELS HOLD THE
OVERCAST SKIES FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING THE CLEARING LINE MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NW WI. THINK THE CLEARING HAS A GOOD SHOT AT
GETTING INTO CENTRAL WI...HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL BE HARDER TO GET
RID OF FARTHER EAST/NORTH AS THE FLOW REMAINS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. WILL WORK IN SOME CLEARING LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL
WI...BUT ANY CLEARING LOOKS TO QUICKLY FILL BACK IN AS THE NEXT
WEATHER MAKER APPROACHES FROM THE NW THURSDAY MORNING. IF THE
CLOUD FORECAST HOLDS...LOWS WILL BE THE LOWEST OVER CENTRAL WI
INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI. IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT QUICKER...SOME SUB-ZERO
LOWS ARE POSSIBLE. FARTHER EAST...LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS.

THIS NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL SWING
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. IT IS A
QUICK MOVER WITHOUT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SO ALTHOUGH IT
LOOKS LIKELY IT WILL SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...IT DOES NOT LOOK TO LAST LONG OR
AMOUNT TO MUCH. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THIS AREA...BUT KEEP
ACCUMULATIONS UNDER AN INCH. THURSDAY WILL BE A CHILLIER DAY...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S FOR MOST SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS
INDICATE THAT SPLIT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM.  THIS NORTHERN
STREAM WILL SEND A COUPLE CLIPPERS OUR DIRECTION...ONE ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN REGARDS TO THE
DETAILS SURROUNDING THE FRIDAY NIGHT CLIPPER...BUT FALL INTO THE LOW-
MEDIUM LEVELS FOR THE SUNDAY CLIPPER.  THEN THE UPPER FLOW WILL
AMPLIFY AS THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE BUILDS...WHICH WILL LEAD TO DEEP
TROUGHING ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
MOISTURE APPEARS DEEP ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST FLURRIES IF NOT UP TO A
HALF INCH OF SNOW.  WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
ANY LIGHT PRECIP WILL END DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  AFTER BRIEF
CLEARING FRIDAY MORNING...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER.  THIS CLIPPER WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  WONDER
IF THE MODELS ARE OVERDONE WITH PRECIP SINCE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
BE BYPASSING THE REGION TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.  WILL LEAN ON THE
GUIDANCE WITH THE LOWER QPF.  ANY LIGHT SNOW LOOKS TO END SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN RATHER SEASONABLE.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.  IT WILL SLOW DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER CIRCULATION CLOSES OFF.  THIS SYSTEM WILL THEREFORE
BRING SEVERAL PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.  UNLESS THE SYSTEM IS STRONGER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED...THIS LOOKS LIKE A SUB-ADVISORY SNOWFALL
AT THIS TIME.  ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

LIFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WI ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SNOW WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND THE SNOW ENDS.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WI THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED AT KRHI. A FEW GUSTS OVER 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS SHOW SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BRINGING
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AND VFR CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...ANY CLEARING WILL BE BRIEF AS CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT
WEATHER MAKER WILL QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH LIGHT SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....BERSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......BERSCH



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