Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 220433
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1133 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Moist cyclonic flow dominated the region this afternoon, combining
with daytime heating and weak shortwave energy moving across
northern WI and Upper Michigan to produce a lot of clouds along
with isolated to scattered showers. Already seeing the coverage of
the showers diminish early this afternoon and that trend will
continue through the early evening with all showers coming to an
end by around sunset as influence of the cyclonic flow weakens, we
lose daytime heating effects, and surface ridging builds in from
the west. Clouds will also clear out through the late afternoon
and evening hours with mostly clear skies expected the rest of the
night. It will be on the chilly side tonight, especially over
northern WI where low temps should drop into the 40s.

Clearing skies, light winds, recent rains, cooler temps, and some
moisture trapped under a low level inversion will create the
potential for fog development overnight, mainly across central and
north central WI. Patchy dense fog is possible, especially in low
lying areas.

On Monday, after any fog lifts in the early morning hours, look
for mostly sunny skies as the surface ridge moves across the
Great Lakes. Southwest return flow kicks into gear Monday
afternoon with the strongest warm air advection staying toward
the Mississippi Valley, so not expecting much of its influence to
impact the area through mid-late afternoon. Could be a few clouds
in the afternoon, especially over north central WI and winds
getting a little gusty out of the southwest, but looks to be about
it as moisture is lacking to produce anything more. Temps will
respond nicely as heights rise over the area. Highs look to climb
into the mid 70s to around 80 for most spots.

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

An upper jet moving across Lake Superior and Upper
Michigan could produce some showers or sprinkles falling from
middle clouds Monday night or early Tuesday, but think there is a
better chance of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a northward
moving warm front Tuesday night and a cold front moving through
Wednesday afternoon or evening. Severe potential Wednesday looks
to be limited by elevated warm and dry air layer.

Warmer and more humid air will arrive Tuesday and continue
Wednesday. High pressure will bring dry and seasonable
conditions for Thursday through Saturday.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

High pressure will drift across the region during the overnight
period, and resulting clear skies and light winds should lead to
patchy fog development, especially in the favored areas of north
central and central WI. 00z MET/MAV guidance is still not showing
any fog tonight, despite some development already occurring over
north central WI late this evening. Will stay the course, and
keep a tempo group with LIFR vsbys at RHI, and MVFR/IFR vsbys at
AUW/CWA.

Any lingering fog will mix out early Monday as southwest winds
pick up. The winds are expected to gust to around 20 kts in the
afternoon. Only scattered cumulus clouds are anticipated during
the late morning and afternoon.

A 35-40 kt low-level jet will take aim on north central WI
Monday evening, with strong WAA perhaps generating scattered
showers near RHI. Will just put VCSH in the RHI TAF for now.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....Bersch
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch



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