Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 112037
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
237 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday
Issued at 236 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

Snow that moved across much of the area today was mainly in
eastern and parts of central Wisconsin at 20Z, and continued to
push eastward as a mid level trough passed north of the state.
Plenty of low level moisture and some lift behind the departing
snow resulted in areas of freezing drizzle. 12Z model time/height
plots showed weak or no lift across most of the area by 00Z so
any freezing drizzle should come to an end by then in most of the
forecast area. Snow may linger into the evening across eastern
Wisconsin before the trough departs and a surface ridge begins to
build into the state.

Another mid level trough and surface low are forecast to pass
south of the area on Sunday. Have kept the forecast dry for
now, but it is possible that precipitation associated with the
system could impact the far southeast part of the forecast area.
Highs should be near or above freezing on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Saturday
Issued at 236 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

High pressure will bring dry conditions Sunday night through
Monday night. A weak short-wave and jet streak will pass through
the region Monday night, but a lack of significant lift or deep
saturation should prevent precipitation development.

Strong return flow and associated WAA will bring a chance of light
rain or drizzle on Tuesday. Rain chances will increase Tuesday
night as a cold front and short-wave trof move into the region.
The rain should end from west to east Wednesday morning as the
cold front exits the forecast area. A brief mix of rain/snow is
possible northwest early in the day.

High pressure will bring another brief period of dry weather
Wednesday night into Thursday.

Forecast confidence is lower on days 6/7 (Fri/Sat), as models
exhibit timing differences with a phasing low pressure system that
is expected to rapidly deepen to our east. The GFS is faster than
the ECMWF, but otherwise trends are somewhat similar. Aside from
a period of mixed precipitation changing to snow, there is
potential for strong northwest winds as the low deepens and pulls
out. Will mention a possibility of gale force gusts in the
Hazardous Weather Outlook for our marine areas.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1145 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

MVFR ceilings prevailed across most of the area late this morning.
There were some VFR ceilings in parts of east central Wisconsin
where surface dew points were only in the teens. Snow and patchy
freezing drizzle reduced the visibility to MVFR or IFR in eastern
and parts of central Wisconsin. The snow should exit to the east
by early evening, but some freezing drizzle could persist during
the night. Expect mainly dry weather with MVFR or VFR ceilings on
Sunday.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......MG



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