Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 270328
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1028 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

A RATHER SHOWERY PERIOD WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.

SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE AMPLIFICATION IS UNDERWAY. RIDGE WL CONT
TO BUILD NWD FM UPR ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. A SERIES OF SHRTWVS DIGGING SEWD DOWNSTREAM FM THE BUILDING
RIDGE WL CARVE OUT AN UPR TROF OVER THE ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES RGN.
ONCE IN PLACE...THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO BE VERY STABLE AND WL
PERSIST FOR A WHILE...THOUGH IT APPEARS THE UPR FEATURES MAY EDGE
WWD A BIT DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FCST PERIOD. THE AMPLITUDE
OF THE ERN TROF MAY ALSO FLUCTUATE.

THE UPR CHANGES WL RESULT IN NWLY UPR FLOW DOMINATING THE FCST
AREA...PROBABLY THROUGH THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WL
START OUT NRN NORMAL AS AMPLITUDE IS INITIALLY STILL QUITE
LOW...THEN EDGE DOWN TO SOMEWHAT BLO NORMAL LEVELS BY NEXT WEEK.
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS NEAR THE MAIN POLAR FRONT WL REMAIN
TO OUR S. BUT THE COMBINATION OF SHRTWVS DROPPING THOUGH THE RGN
AND INSTABILITY RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WL BE CONDUCIVE
TO AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION AT TIMES. BEST GUESS IS PCPN AMNTS WL
END UP NR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

NOT MUCH GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED.

ANY LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END THIS
EVENING...LEAVING A DRY FCST IN PLACE. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES...SHOULD BE A COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH. FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE POCKETS OF THICK
FOG WAS REPORTED FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN A FEW DEGREES TO REFLECT GUIDANCE
TRENDS. SEEMED REASONABLE GIVEN THIS IS WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTEST OR CALM AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

A SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY AND RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER. KEPT AFTERNOON SHOWERS OUT OF THE FCST IN THE AFTERNOON.
UNLIKE THE PAST FEW DAY...WISCONSIN WILL BE SITTING IN THE AXIS
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING AT THE SFC.
HOWEVER...WITH NW FLOW ALOFT...WOULDNT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
A STRAY SHOWER IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
CHANCES TOO SMALL TO ADD INTO CURRENT FCST PACKAGE.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

MAIN FCST ISSUE WAS THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE PCPN WITH
AMPLIFYING SHRTWV DIGGING SSEWD THROUGH THE RGN DURING THE
WEEKEND. OVERALL...NOT MUCH CHG FM PREV FCST IN THAT REGARD.
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST FORCING WL PASS ARND THE AREA TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST...SO STUCK WITH CHC/SLGT CHC POPS IN THE FAR NE
PART OF THE AREA...BUT RAISED POPS IN THE SW/W TO NEARLY
CATEGORICAL. THE COVERAGE OF THE PCPN WL DIMINISH SUN NGT...BUT
IT MAY NOT GO AWAY COMPLETELY. EXPECT SHRA TO BECOME MUCH MORE
NUMEROUS AGAIN MON AS DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. STUCK CLOSE
TO BLEND OF TOP PERFORMING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS FOR TEMPS...WITH SOME
ADJUSTMENTS LAKESIDE.

NO SIG CHG TO EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED ON A BROAD
BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. RESOLVING PCPN CHCS DURING THIS PERIOD
WL BE DIFFICULT. MOST AREAS WL PROBABLY HAVE SHOWERS ON A COUPLE
OF THE DAYS...BUT ALSO HAVE SOME DRY DAYS AS WELL. IT/S PICKING
WHICH DAYS FALL INTO WHICH CATEGORY THAT WILL BE THE BIG
CHALLENGE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. AS WAS THE
CASE LAST NIGHT...SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER NORTH CENTRAL
AND FAR NORTHEAST WI. HAVE KEPT A TEMPO GROUP FOR VLIFR
CONDITIONS AT THE RHI TAF SITE OVERNIGHT...AS THEY WILL BE
SITUATED BENEATH A WEAK SFC RIDGE AND HAVE VERY LIGHT OR CALM
WINDS. PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP NEAR AUW/CWA. FOG SHOULD MIX
OUT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH


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