Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGRB 030447
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1047 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

BEST FORCING AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXITED THE AREA
EARLIER THIS EVENING AND THE SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF TO VERY LIGHT
SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN. DECIDED TO DROP
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM LAKESHORE AND FOX VALLEY AND REPLACE IT
WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET GOES BY. CONTINUED THE WARNING
ELSEWHERE...THOUGH THERE PROBABLY WILL NOT BE MORE THAN 2 TO 4
INCHES OVERNIGHT IN NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN AND LESS ELSEWHERE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

A BAND OF SNOW MOVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING
A QUICK 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SNOW...
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. DRY SLOT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL CONTINUE HEADLINES FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE CURRENT
EXPIRATION TIMES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS FOR WINNEBAGO...CALUMET
AND MANITOWOC COUNTIES WHERE IT MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER 1
TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AS THE LOW DEPARTS THE AREA. HAVE ACCOUNTED
FOR THIS SCENARIO IN THE WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS TO INDICATE TWO
SEPARATE TIMES FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ACROSS CENTRAL INTO
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE SNOW SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTH WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN MAX
AND MIN TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

A VERY ACTIVE...YET MOISTURE STARVED...PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SERIES
OF WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AT
TIMES...BRINGING CHANCES OF SNOW SEVERAL TIMES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. HOWEVER AS WAS MENTIONED...THE SYSTEMS WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED AND NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...WHICH WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO START THE
EXTENDED ACROSS VILAS COUNTY...WHICH WILL BE QUICKLY SHUTTING DOWN
AS WINDS TURN WESTERLY AHEAD OF ONE IN A SERIES OF WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEMS TRACKING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE WEAK CLIPPER
ITSELF WILL TRACK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS CLIPPER WILL HAVE A WEAK SIGNATURE IN THE
SURFACE MSLP FIELD WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW WITH
LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FROM THIS FIRST CLIPPER
SYSTEM.

THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY WEAK...TRACKING
THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A BIT
STRONGER...HENCE THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS...BUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SOME ADDED BOOST BY LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE LAST CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONGEST OF ALL THREE AS IT
AFFECTS THE AREA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM
TRACKS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY...THEN DEEPENS AND
BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW...AND LINGERS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. WHILE THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW IN THE MID
LEVELS...THERE IS AGREEMENT IN A LENGTHY PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES AS THIS SYSTEM SPINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY INTO NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER ONCE THE COLD AIR IS BROUGHT IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM HIGHS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS BY TUESDAY. WHILE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS DURING ANY ONE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT...SNOWFALL WILL ADD UP DURING THE THREE DAY STRETCH THAT THE
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE GREAT LAKES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN. DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AT GRB/ATW/OSH/SUE/MTW. WEDNESDAY WILL
START WITH IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS BUT WIND UP WITH MVFR
OR VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ022-
038>040-048>050.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR
WIZ010>013-018>021-030-031-035>037-045-073-074.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ010>013-
018>021-030-031-035>037-045-073-074.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........RDM
SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......RDM


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.