Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 241723
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1123 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE THREAT OF DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES THIS MORNING.
DID MENTION SMALL CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING MAINLY THIS MORNING. ONLY
REAL FORCING IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN...AS THE WAVE/TROUGH
LIFTS NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
FREEZING...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND WEST...SO
MENTIONED SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL. DONT ANTICIPATE
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 30S AGAIN TODAY.

CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WE MAY LOSE THE
LOWER CLOUDS TO THE FAR WEST LATER TONIGHT AS SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE
MOVES IN.  HOWEVER...MID HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WONT BE FAR BEHIND AS THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TOPS THE UPPER RIDGE.  WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND
LITTLE OVERALL ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S
ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

THE MAIN HEADLINES DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
ARE THE CHANCE FOR SNOW ON THURSDAY /CHRISTMAS/ AND FRIDAY...AND
NOTABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

ON THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...WHILE DOWNSTREAM SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES.
24.00Z ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS CAME IN STRONGER AND MORE
SUCCINT WITH THE FORCING RELATED TO THIS FEATURE...DEPICTING DECENT
850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT TO DEVELOP BY
18Z THURSDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SWRN MN. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP
OVER WEST CENTRAL MN DURING THE MORNING...EXPAND EASTWARD THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND CONTINUE FRIDAY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY KICKS
NORTHEAST. COULD SEE A RAIN-SNOW MIX SCENARIO ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI...GIVEN PROGGED
TEMPS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE APPEAR LIKELY BETWEEN 12Z THURSDAY AND 12Z
SATURDAY...WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS ORIENTED ALONG AND NORTH OF A
MONTEVIDEO TO MORA LINE.

OVERALL THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS DRY...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE
TEENS. HOWEVER...EVEN COLDER AIR INFILTRATES THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIPS INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MO VALLEY REGIONS. THERES A SLIGHT
CHANCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP LOCALLY AS THE WAVE DROPS
JUST SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...BUT THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE A
NOTABLE REDUCTION IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL TOP OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH SUB-ZERO HIGHS EVEN
APPEARING POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 ON NEW YEARS EVE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

WIDESPREAD LOW END MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS CONTD ACROSS MOST OF MPX
CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION NEAR KEAU WHERE CIGS ROSE ABV 3K THIS
MORNING.

BASED ON CONTINUED VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...INVERSION STRENGTHENING
AND LIMITED MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS WINDS BACK TO THE SW/S
OVERNIGHT...WILL LEAN TOWARD IFR/MVFR CIGS THRU THE PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH EARLIER TAFS HAD A PERIOD OF VFR CONDS OVERNIGHT...THERE
REMAINS SOME OPTIMISM ON VFR BRIEFLY MOVING INTO WESTERN MN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HRS BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM LOWERS CIGS/VSBYS IN
-SN...MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 212 OR FROM KDXX TO KSTC. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY BECOME W/SW THIS EVENING AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.
MORE SW/S WINDS DEVELOP TOMORROW AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST BY THE AFTN.

KMSP...

KEPT CIGS BLW 1.7K THRU THE AFTN/EVENING AS UPSTREAM OBS/CONDS
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THIS TO OCCUR. STILL SOME OPTIMISM ON VFR CONDS
LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE
STRENGTHENING INVERSION AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...I HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO. EVEN IF WE GET THE VFR CONDS...MVFR
CIGS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTN AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SFC WINDS WILL START FROM THE NW AND BACK
TO THE W/SW THIS EVENING AND MORE S/SSE BY THURSDAY AFTN. SPDS
WILL REMAIN AOB 10 KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...MVFR/IFR WITH CHC -SN. WINDS NNW 10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR... WINDS SSE 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JLT





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