Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 192110
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
310 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 310 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Extensive high cloudiness has shrouded the Upper Midwest this
afternoon as moisture begins increasing from the southwest. Despite
this, we have broken record highs at MSP, STC, and EAU with upper
50s to mid 60s across the region. The low clouds have broken up
quite a bit across the Plains today, but expecting these to
redevelop later tonight as deeper low level moisture begins reaching
the area. The low level moisture increase will bring us monthly
record lows tonight if we remain warm enough until midnight
Monday night.

Most of the showers will remain south of Minnesota through tonight,
but will lift north quickly across primarily eastern and central
Minnesota early to mid morning. Hi-res models continue to show
the potential for embedded thunder with this round and the GFS/NAM
are particularly bullish with the intensity, dropping 1/2-1 inch
through early afternoon. This rain will continue expanding while
shifting east across WI during the late morning and afternoon.

Some clearing may occur across MN by mid afternoon before the
front and we do have the potential to jump with temperatures. A
few hi-res models even show some additional showers or storms
developing on the front, but at this point we should be worked
over enough to prevent much of a severe threat.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Confidence remains high for the abnormally warm temperatures to
continue through Wednesday as the upper air pattern holds with
fairly flat flow across the northern CONUS. Eventually this does
begin to break down as a strong western CONUS trough moves ashore
to toward the second half of the week.

The Monday weather system exits into Monday evening with a
lingering threat of a thundershower over western Wisconsin early
in the evening. Little in the way of significant cooling occurs
behind this trough. We retained the record/near record high
temepratures for this period. The more significant cold front
drops into the area later Wednesday/Wednesday night with cooler
temperatures leading into the next forecast storm system.

The deterministic models continue to develop a potent winter
storm which will affect portions of the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest Thursday night into at least Friday night. Both the 12z
ECWMF and Canadian models drive the western CONUS energy
northeast with a deep surface low lifting to into Iowa by Friday
morning and into southern Wisconsin by Friday night. The GFS is
less amplified and drives the system a tad farther to the south.
THe 12z GEFS probability plots continue to focus in on about the
southern half of the cwa during the period. It does paint high
probabilities for greater than 10 inches of snow in 12 hours over
the southern third of MN into Wisconsin. We will retain the
highest pops for the event in this area and trail them off to the
northwest. The 12z CIPS analog for the event highlights the
3/13/2006 storm which dropped a swath of snow 8-18 inches across
southern MN into Northwest Wisconsin. The mean probability for
greater than 6 inches of snow for the top 15 analog storms paints
a similar trend as well. Still plenty of time for the storm track
to shift with the trough associated with the forecast storm
still well off the west coast. Still...confidence is increasing
for a significant storm to affect at least part of cwa later this
week. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

VFR conditions through most of the period. Increasing moisture
will bring MVFR or IFR cigs in late tonight which should persist
into much of Monday. Not seeing much stratus with the increase of
the low level moisture today, so think models may be overdoing the
potential for very low cigs/visibilities. Part of this reason is
the overly strong inversion they develop tonight, which could also
be contributing to the wind shear potential as well. Temperatures
in the 50s may allow for slightly more mixed potential. Showers
and some storms will develop over Iowa and western MN late
tonight and lift northeast across the area through mid afternoon.

KMSP...VFR into late tonight, then MVFR cigs should arrive a few
hours before the showers/storms.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tue...VFR. Wind SW at 5-10 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind SW at 10G15 kts becoming NW late.
Thu...VFR. CHC MVFR/-RA/-SN in the afternoon, then LIFR/+SN
possible Thu night. Wind NE 5-10 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF



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