Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 280905
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
405 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRES CENTER CROSSING
FROM ERN SD INTO SWRN MN EARLY THIS MRNG WITH A TRAILING CDFNT
EXTENDING TO THE SW. A WEAK WMFNT LOOKS TO PRECEDE THE SFC LOW...
BUT ASIDE FROM CONTRIBUTING MODEST ASCENT TO THE SWATH OF
SHWRS/TSTMS SHIFTING FROM ERN MN INTO WRN WI...THE WMFNT IS OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE...PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES. THE
SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MEANDER TO THE ESE THRU THE DAY...
RELOCATING ITSELF TO NEAR KRST THIS AFTN THEN CONTINUE INTO N-
CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT. IN CONCERT WITH THIS SFC LOW...AN H5 OPEN
SHTWV TROF AND AN H7 CUTOFF LOW WILL DROP SE FROM NRN MN INTO SWRN
WI THRU THE DAY TDA...THEN CONTINUE MOVG TWD LAKE MICHIGAN TNGT. THE
SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE LOW PRES FEATURES...BOTH AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT...WILL MAINTAIN LOW-MID LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH BROAD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE /PWATS ARND 1.25
INCHES/ INVOF THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF
SHWRS/TSTMS LATER THIS MRNG THRU THIS AFTN FOR MAINLY ERN PORTIONS
OF THE WFO MPX CWFA. THIS FOCUS AREA IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW
PRES FEATURES...SO HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR WRN WI INTO FAR
ERN MN...WITH POPS TRENDING DOWN SHARPLY GOING W OF I-35. THE LACK
OF INSOLATION DUE TO ONGOING ACTIVITY...MITIGATING STRONG
INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE SHEAR WILL PREVENT
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WX SO AM NOT EXPECTING AS SUCH. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLD STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS/HVY RAIN/SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. AS THE LOW PRES FEATURES SHIFT AWAY TO THE SE LATER TDA
INTO TNGT...ANY SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL ALSO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION...GRADUALLY ALLOWING PRECIP TO DIMINISH OVER THE COVERAGE
AREA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...CLOUD/RAIN COMPLICATIONS OVER THE ERN PORTION
OF THE CWFA WILL MAKE FOR THAT PORTION SEEING THE COOLEST TEMPS.
MEANWHILE...THE EXIT OF THE LOW PRES FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE ALONG THE DAKOTA BORDERS. WILL LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RANGE
FROM THE MID-70S IN WRN WI TO THE LWR 80S IN WRN MN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE THEME OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW
WE WILL EXPERIENCE AS THE STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. WITH THIS
SETUP...A COUPLE SHORTWAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR
AREA DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AND OFFER CHANCES FOR
MORE THUNDERSTORMS.

PICKING UP THE FORECAST ON MONDAY...OUR FIRST SHORTWAVE OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ADVANCING SOUTH THROUGH MANITOBA. A
STRENGTHENING JET STREAK FROM MANITOBA THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WILL
AID IN UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WI.
THIS AND THE PV ADVECTION THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE LIFT...AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIKELY FADE
OVERNIGHT.

THE NEXT WAVE WILL PUSH INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT
APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AT THIS TIME. LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN MN LATE IN THE NIGHT WITH SHOWERS
PUSHING IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. INSTABILITY LOOKS VERY LIMITED...SO
THUNDER WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED. ANOTHER SIMILAR WAVE WILL BE ON
ITS HEELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND...FRIDAY AND SUNDAY BOTH OFFER MORE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A DRY
INDEPENDENCE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL VARY
FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. A FEW STORMS
WILL REDEVELOP EAST OF I-35 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE
DECREASED...SO CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS HAS ALSO DECREASED
SINCE FOG/STRATUS IS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW THINK THAT RWF HAS THE BEST
CHANCE FRO LOWER VISBYS/CIGS SINCE THEY RECIEVED THE MOST
RAINFALL. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MORNING BRINGING
VFR CONDITIONS.

KMSP...
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE THUNDER
THREAT IS DIMINISHING...SO ONLY HAVE VCSH IN THE TAF. A FEW STORMS
MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE EAST OF
KMSP...SO ONLY HAVE VCSH IN THE TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR WITH -TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR WITH -TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS E 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JRB



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