Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 011143

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
543 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 420 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

The storm system that has affected the Upper Midwest over the past
few days has weakened overnight and most of the precipitation
has ended. There still remains an extensive area of moisture that
has wrapped up into this system, which means that cloudy skies
will likely continue through tonight. As this system continues to
weaken and rotate out of the region, drier air will begin to
scoured out the boundary layer moisture. Even though no measurable
precipitation is expected, a few flurries/sprinkles are possible
today, especially in west central Wisconsin where the depth of the
moisture and cloud seeding of ice exists. Temperatures will once
again only rise a few degrees from morning lows. Temperatures
overnight may fall below freezing as dew points lower and boundary
layer moisture dries out.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 420 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Friday through Monday...Friday will commence with high pressure
dominating much of the central CONUS, extending up into the upper
Midwest. A modest cooling trend will be in place as upper flow
becomes generally from the northwest, bringing in modified colder
Canadian air to the region. High pressure will remain in place
through Saturday, maintaining dry conditions over the area. A weak
cold front will approach for Sunday, coincident with a shortwave
trough axis from the west coast. An increase in lower level
moisture will accompany these features, and there is a possibility
of some rain and snow showers, particularly for the eastern half
of the WFO MPX coverage area, late Saturday night into Sunday
afternoon. Very little QPF is expected, and hence no snow
accumulation. Have capped pops in the chance category (no higher
than 50 percent). This system quickly swings off to the east
Sunday night, followed by weak high pressure for Monday along with
a bubble ridge axis which will drift across the area. As such,
have kept Monday dry. The aforementioned ridge coming in for
Monday will also contribute to a slight warming of temperatures
for the start of next week. While highs hold in the upper 20s to
mid 30s for Friday and Saturday, highs increase to the upper 30s
to lower 40s by Monday.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Uncertainty and model disagreements are
the key themes to the middle portion of next week so confidence
runs rather low on synoptic patterns, let alone any forecast
details. GFS and ECMWF continue to display highly divergent
scenarios for the middle of next week, both in consecutive runs of
each and in comparison to each other. The GFS shows a clipper-type
low for late Monday into Tuesday, dragging a cold front through
the region, followed by cold high pressure oozing down from
Canada. This high pressure combined with a rotating upper low
over south-central Canada, producing northwest flow aloft, will
help shunt any additional systems to the south and east of the
coverage area, meaning a relatively tame forecast. Meanwhile, the
ECMWF has a much more highly amplified upper air pattern,
developing a huge trough in the western two-thirds of the CONUS
which will contribute to it developing one potent low pressure
system north through the central-northern Plains Monday night into
Tuesday followed by another strong low pressure system affecting
the region Wednesday-Thursday. Then, in the middle of these
solutions, the HopWRF brings a potent 990-or-so millibar low
through the central Plains on into southern MN and western WI
Wednesday through Thursday. It is possible the ECMWF and HopWRF
solutions could bring accumulating snowfall to the area for the
middle of next week...but given all the variety in the scenarios
presented over the past couple days, it is difficult to latch onto
any one solution at this point. Have tempered pops into the chance
category for now for the middle of next week until model
confidence allows anything higher. What can be said with greater
confidence is that temperatures are expected to go on a cooling
trend during the middle of next week, with highs dropping into the
20s by Wednesday and potentially only the teens for some areas on


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 535 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Early December sun angle will limit daytime mixing, but enough to
have a few areas have high end MVFR or low end VFR during the
afternoon. Otherwise, high confidence in IFR/MVFR ceilings for the
next 6 hours, with some breaks in the overcast. Confidence remains
low for cloud cover to lessen or become VFR. A northwest wind
will continue today and tonight with a few gusts of 15-20 kts
today in western/southwest Minnesota.


High confidence in MVFR ceilings (Below 1.7k) through 18z, with
lowering confidence on when ceilings rise above 1.7k this
afternoon. A northwest wind will continue through the taf period.


Fri...MVFR...Possible VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind SW-S 5-10 kts.
Sun...MVFR. Chance -sn. Wind SW- WSW 10 kts.




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