Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 031016
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
416 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

EARLY THIS MORNING...LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
IMPRESSIVE WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST AS
EXPECTED. THE STRONGEST FORCING HAS WANED AS THE SYSTEM
OCCLUDED...SO SNOWFALL RATES ARE LIGHT AT THIS TIME. STRONG NORTH
WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE EXPECTATION FOR THE MORNING IS SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
THERE WILL BE MINIMAL ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WITH THE LIGHT SNOW
BANDS WORKING THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW
IS NOW OUT OVER THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. AS THE LOW
CONTINUES NORTHEAST...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. THE PRIMARY
CONCERN FOR TRAVELERS THIS MORNING IS FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN...INCLUDING THE I-90 CORRIDOR
WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST THIS MORNING. HENCE...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REPLACE THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR MUCH OF
THAT AREA THROUGH NOON TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BLOWING SNOW
CONCERN.

POPS COME BACK IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT AS
A SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH CANADA WITH DECENT PV ANOMALY
AIMED AT NORTHERN/CENTRAL MN. SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THIS FAST MOVING
WAVE WILL BE MINIMAL HOWEVER AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A CLIPPER LOW
DRIVING ESEWD FROM W-CENTRAL CANADA ACRS THE MN INTERNATIONAL
BORDER BY DAYBREAK THU MRNG. THE LOW WILL COME IN A WEAKENED
FASHION FROM BEING MORE WELL-DEVELOPED IN CANADA. ALTHOUGH IT
WILL BE USHERED ALONG BY AN UPR LVL TROF...OVERALL FORCING LOOKS
FAIRLY WEAK AMONG THE GFS/EC/GEM SUCH IN ADDITION TO A PROGRESSIVE
FORWARD SPEED THAT ONLY MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS /AN INCH OR
LESS CWFA-WIDE/ LOOK POSSIBLE FROM THIS SYSTEM DURG THE DAY THU.
CONTINUED NW FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM
ORIGINATING FROM THE SRN CANADIAN ROCKIES TO MOVE THRU THE AREA
DURG THE DAY FRI. AGAIN...A FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE UPR LVL TROF WILL
HELP MOVE THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM ALONG...BUT IT WILL AGAIN CONTAIN
FAIRLY WEAK UPR LVL SUPPORT AND WITH ITS STEADY FORWARD SPEED WILL
ALSO PRODUCE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. AS FOR
SATURDAY...QUITE THE DISCERNIBLE UPR LVL RIDGE COMING ONSHORE THE
WRN NOAM COAST LATE THU WILL REACH THE CENTRAL CONUS SAT. THE
LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRES MOVING ATOP THE REGION WILL KEEP THE AREA
DRY AND COMMENCE WARM AIR ADV FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON THU-FRI IN
THE 20S TO NEAR 30S WILL CLIMB TO THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S ON SAT.

SUNDAY-TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OFF TO
THE E ON SUN...IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT CDFNT DUE TO PUSH THRU THE
REGION LATE DAY SUN. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...INCRD H5 HEIGHTS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE COMBINED WITH STRONG SLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE CDFNT WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW-MID 30S
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE CDFNT WILL RESULT IN NOT ONLY ADDITIONAL
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS /AND POTENTIALLY A RAIN-SNOW MIX WITH
TEMPS ABV FREEZING/ BUT ALSO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTING
SUN NIGHT AND LASTING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRES
WILL PREVAIL FOR MON-TUE BUT STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE A
PATHWAY FOR AN ARCTIC SURGE OF AIR TO MOVE INTO THE N-CENTRAL
CONUS. HIGHS WILL DROP TO THE TEENS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE LOWS
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

THE BAND OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE FROM JUST EAST OF KRWF/KSTC ACROSS
KMSP/KRNH TOWARD KEAU INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...GRADUALLY
SHRINKING AND TAPERING OFF BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AS FORCING/LIFT
WANE. IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO LOW-
END MVFR AS THE SNOW ENDS /BUT BLOWING SNOW CONTINUES TO YIELD
VSBY RESTRICTIONS/. CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH PEEKS OF SUN OVER WEST CENTRAL MN
SITES. NORTHWEST WINDS GUST TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY...DIMINISHING TO BETWEEN 5 AND 8 KTS
WEDNESDAY EVE AND BACKING TO WEST/SOUTHWEST.

KMSP...
SNOW WILL LIGHTEN UP BY 09Z...THEN DIMINISH BY 12Z. BLOWING SNOW
WILL YIELD MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING HOWEVER.
VFR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z WED. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUST TO 30 KTS UNTIL 18Z...THEN DIMINISH TO BELOW 10 KTS
AROUND/AFTER 00Z THU.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND SW 5-10 KTS BCMG WNW.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. WIND SW/S 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ014>016-023>028.

MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MNZ053-059>063-065>070-075>078.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MNZ044-045-049>052-054>058-064.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MNZ073-
     074-082>085-091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...LS


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