Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 012051
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
251 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 250 PM CST Thu Dec 1 201

Short term concerns are any remaining threat for flurries
overnight and cloud trend into Friday afternoon.

Cyclonic flow remain over the region with abundant low level
moisture remaining. Areas of drizzle/flurries moving through the
southeast cwa this afternoon and a few flurries moving across
northern/central MN. This will be the trend much of the night with
overall trend to frozen ptype(flurries). May see some mist/light
freezing drizzle/ as well...but we expect it to be isolated and
will leave this out for now. Cold air advection remains weak...so we
will likely see temperatures remain in the 25 to 30 degree range for
lows tonight.

Some chance of breaks in the lower cloud cover developing into
Friday afternoon as models try to bring in some drier air from the
north/northwest. Will likely retain mostly cloudy trend for now.
Highs should warm into the lower 30s most areas...which still is a
little above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

A few light rain or snow showers are possible on Sunday. There is a
chance for a larger storm system to bring snow across the Upper
Midwest Tuesday and Wednesday, but confidence is increasing the
storm will be southeast of the region in a warmer temperature regime
and not significantly impact the region. We may get a couple of
inches of snow, but not a snowstorm.

Early afternoon water vapor imagery together with Rap13 500mb
heights show a broad longwave trough over the western Conus.
Upstream there was a upper level trough on the poleward side of a
strong jet over the Gulf of Alaska. The west coast trough will
amplify and eventually a cut-off low will develop over the southwest
US. The northern stream will send a shortwave across the region
which will bring us clouds and light showers on Sunday.

On Monday and Monday night the northern stream will develop a
surface low across southern Canada, while the southern stream sends
a surface low up through the Ohio River Valley. Minnesota and
Wisconsin will be in between these two systems, so it does not
appear that heavy precipitation will affect MN/WI.

Given the strength of the polar jet, the cutoff low across the south
seems probable. Meanwhile the strong northern stream should prevent
the southern wave from trending to the west and bringing heavy snow
across MN/WI. For that reason feel that the chance of a large
cyclone for the early/middle of next week is unlikely at this time
given the current model trends. The coldest air of the season is
likely, however, and should see highs in the teens with lows near
zero late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Widespread stratus deck expected to remain throughout the TAF
period with MVFR ceilings becoming borderline VFR into the
evening. Expect the stratus deck to lower again by sunrise but
still remain MVFR conditions. Steady northwest winds generally below
10 kts will persist through the period.

KMSP...

Ceilings hovering just under the 017 threshold at TAF issuance.
Expect them to lift above 017 by 19Z and continue improving
through the afternoon. MVFR to borderline VFR conditions are
expected with northwest winds becoming westerly tomorrow
afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...MVFR...Possible VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind SW-S 5-10 kts.
Sun...MVFR. Chance -sn. Wind SW- WSW 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...ETA



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