Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 220357
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1057 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Subsidence from upper level ridging led to surface high pressure,
clear skies, and northerly winds across Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Despite the cool air mass, afternoon highs managed to climb into
the 30s for most locations, but this was still 5 to 8 degrees
below the seasonal average for late March.

Overnight skies will remain clear and winds will taper off
slightly allowing temperatures too fall off into the single digits
across western Wisconsin, and teens elsewhere.

On Wednesday, a band of light precip is expected to develop across
western Minnesota. Thermal profiles show a mix of rain or snow.
Accumulations will only be around a few hundredths.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

An upper level trough currently located off the California coast
will dive southward and emerge from the 4-corners region as a
tightly wound upper level low. A slow moving low pressure system
will track eastward with this wave, and widespread showers and
thunderstorms will develop along the warm front and in the warm
sector. Forecast models have trended southward with this wave, and
do not have high confidence in the path since it is arguably cut
off from the main flow and also will have a tremendous amount of
latent heating associated with it. As of now the heaviest precip
will fall along the I-90 corridor.

Looking ahead, another trough will follow quickly on its heels,
but this is in a split flow regime so continued with the blended
guidance for pops and temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

No changes for the 06z TAFs, with dry high pressure keeping skies
clear tonight. NW to SE band of clouds from eastern Montana to
southwest Iowa will drift east across the area Wednesday, but
initial dry airmass will keep us dry, with clouds getting about
as low as 6k ft. Winds will increase tomorrow, with some gusts
into the mid 20s possible, though increasing cloud cover will
limit mixing on southeast winds that already tend to not be as
efficient at mixing down higher momentum air.

KMSP...No additional concerns with VFR conditions and southeast
winds throughout the period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...MVFR. Chc -RA in afternoon & night. Wind SSE 10-15 kt.
Fri...MVFR with -RA likely. Wind NE 5-10 kt.
Sat...Chance MVFR/-RASN. Wind NE 10-15 kt.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...MPG



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