Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 260852
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
352 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A PAIR OF WELL-DEFINED LOW
PRES CENTERS...ONE NEAR KDLH AND ANOTHER NEAR KOMA...LINKED BY A
TRAILING CDFNT FROM THE FORMER TO A LEADING WMFNT FROM THE LATTER.
MEANWHILE...THE COMBINATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
FL WITH A DEEP LONGWAVE TROF AXIS ENTERING THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY
REMAINS. A CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE TROF OVER ERN SD
AND THIS FEATURE WILL TRAVERSE EWD OVER SRN MN DURG THE DAY TDA. IN
CONCERT WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE SFC FRONT WILL ALSO SLOWLY MOVE EWD
ACRS THE AREA WHILE THE LOW PRES CENTER NEAR KOMA SHIFTS NEWD ALONG
THE FRONT. THE DEEPENING OF THE UPR LOW COMBINED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE SFC FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR AN EXPANSION OF SHWRS /AND ISOLD
TSTMS/ FROM AROUND THE MN/IA BORDER NEWD INTO WRN WI...POSSIBLY
GIVING A GLANCING BLOW TO THE TWIN CITIES METRO. BEST SHOT OF RAIN
WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM RICE LAKE-COTTAGE GROVE-
FAIRMONT...AND HRRR/HOPWRF/SREF INDICATES ENOUGH CAPE TO POTENTIALLY
SEE A FEW TSTMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE ACTIVITY. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS
OFF TO THE E...SO WILL THE PRECIP SHIELD...SO WILL LOOK FOR PRECIP
TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E THIS EVE INTO THE EARLY MRNG HOURS. PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL OFF TO THE E COME DAYBREAK WED MRNG.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MILD AIR IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPS IN THE 50S THIS MRNG BUT MODEST CAA WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE
FNT WILL HOLD HIGHS BACK IN THE LWR 70S TDA. ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING
TNGT ALONG WITH WINDS BACKING TO WLY WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER MILD
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING SKIES WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN ON TRACK
AS A SURGE OF WARM AIR PUSHES IN. MUCH OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE
AGREES THAT WIDESPREAD MID 80S ARE CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE SO MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR TOMORROW.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WE GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE BY THURSDAY WHICH MEANS WE`LL SEE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPS WILL BE WARM AGAIN...SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. SLOWED
POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT STILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS PUSHING IN FORM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH. WORKED THOSE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A DECENT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIP
CHANCES GO AWAY ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND WE`LL BE
IN A POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH A DECENT COOL DOWN EXPECTED
AS A SURFACE HIGH FROM CANADA PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE COMPARABLE TO FRIDAY MORNING LOWS...SO
ITS EITHER 10 DEGREES ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL IN THIS PATTERN. 850MB
TEMPS MAY COOL TO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS AND WITH POTENTIALLY
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COULD SEE SOME TEMPS IN THE
30S BY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP IN
SOUTHERN MN SUNDAY...SO STUCK WITH A BLEND FOR NOW AND CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. WE GET BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LOW STRATUS ACROSS CENTRAL MN WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...WITH A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS. IN WESTERN WI...FOG WILL
LIKELY IMPACT THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. KEAU HAS ALREADY SEND VIS
FALL BELOW 2SM. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE MORNING FOR MOST
SITES...BEFORE CEILINGS RAISE ABOVE 3K FT. SKIES BEGIN TO SCATTER
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT. FOR TOMORROW...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN WI.

KMSP...NO CHANGE FROM MAIN DISCUSSION. EXPECTING MOST SHOWERY
ACTIVITY TO STAY EAST OF MSP FOR TUESDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC P.M. -SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SE AT 5-10 KTS.
FRI...MVFR IN SHWRS/TSMS. IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS BECOMING
N 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...SPD



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