Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 110512

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1112 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

The short term concern remains strength and timing of short wave
across the area later tonight/Monday and overall threat of mixed

Water vapor imagery showing rather vigorous short wave moving
through Saskatchewan and extending into eastern Montana. This wave
is still progged to generate lift into the northwest cwa this
evening. Mid level warmer air is working across the eastern
Dakotas and will move into western MN during the evening. There is
some threat of light freezing rain or drizzle into the west
mainly through about midnight, but models continue to trend deeper
moisture east, mainly along and east of I-94 overnight. It appear
if we do lose ice aloft, we could see a period of light freezing
precipitation into central MN toward the Twin Cities through 06z
and the roughly 06z-12z into east to south central MN after that.
At the moment we have some slight chance freezing drizzle

For snow...still looks like a general 1 to 3 inch snow with the
higher accumulations mainly along and northeast of I-94. This
still may shift some if the wave comes in stronger and slower. The
surface low tracks over the Central MN into western WI. Any
deviation in the track of the low farther east will give rise to
better chance for mixed precipitation into east central MN. Will
have to monitor these trends this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Drying treed into Monday giving cooler temperatures through
Wednesday. The next wave arrives later Wednesday lingering into
Thursday. Possibly enough warm air moving in across the Dakotas to
generate some mixed precipitation.

The pattern does continue to appear to be changing some with more
of a Pacific flow moving across the northern tier of the country
into the weekend. This may provide an above normal temperature
trend at least for the first part of the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1106 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Few changes made to 00z TAFs with incoming clipper. Still used a
blend of the HRRR/LAV to bring this snow in. Expect primarily VFR
conditions outside of the snowband until the arctic front comes
through, which will provide us with MVFR and pockets of IFR in the
CAA in its wake. Forecast soundings also show it being quite
breezy with some 40kt gust potential, so did go a few kts above
LAV guidance for winds.

KMSP...Confidence is high in only p-type we will deal with is
snow, and it will happen for all but 3 hours early in the 6z TAF
period. Wind gust potential in the afternoon is up around 35 kts.
We`ll start clearing out the clouds in the afternoon, but as
usual, confidence a bit low on timing on when improvements to VFR
will occur.

Tue...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Wed...MVFR with chc -SN. Wind SE 5 kts mrng, NW aftn 10-15 kts.
Thu...Chc MVFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.




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