Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 240755
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
255 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO THIS MORNING.
CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ON THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL MN/WI BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AFTER
SUNRISE AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY. CU RULE IS HIGHLY
NEGATIVE NORTH OF I-94 SO MAINTAINED CLOUDY SKIES IN THOSE
LOCATIONS...WITH FEW-SCT CU POSSIBLY DEVELOPING SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE
HELD BACK UNDER THE CLOUDS TO THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S WITH UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

SINCE NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED SINCE YESTERDAY...EXPECTING SIMILAR WIND
GUSTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SHOW POTENTIAL FOR 30 KT GUSTS
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATER THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCH
CLOSER TONIGHT AND WINDS SHOULD EASE QUICKLY BY SUNSET. WITH THE
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED...SHOULD SEE TEMPS FALL A FEW EXTRA DEGREES
WITH 40S COMMON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

THE LONGER TERM TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COOLER AND DRIER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD THROUGH ABOUT MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW WARMING
TREND.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN HAS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH EXITING
SLOWLY TO THE EAST EARLY WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WEST. THIS
LEAVES MINNESOTA IN THE TRANSITION ZONE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...THE WESTERN
MONSOON WILL SPILL SOME MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO
MINNESOTA MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS HAS COME
IN WITH THE SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED AND IS NOW MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE
ECMWF.  IT APPEARS A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...WILL HAVE TO INCREASE POPS INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY. THEREAFTER...WE SHOULD SEE DRIER CONDITIONS MOVING
BACK IN ALONG WITH WARMER CONDITIONS AS HEIGHTS RISE AGAIN AHEAD OF
THE NEXT TROUGH PROGGED INTO THE AREA BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

OVERALL THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL START OUT WITH PLEASANT PRE FALL
CONDITIONS INTO MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK.  DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS LOOK
LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

VFR CEILINGS WITH LINGERING STRATO-CUMULUS DECK TONIGHT WITH
BREEZY W-NW WINDS CONTINUING. LITTLE TO NO AVIATION WEATHER
IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND. THERE ARE 2000-3000FT
CLOUD BASES THAT MAY TRY TO WORK DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND WEST
CENTRAL WI IN THE MORNING WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR.
KRNH AND KEAU ARE THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY THESE
LOWER CLOUDS.

KMSP...

AS MENTIONED ABOVE SOME 2000-3000FT CLOUDS WILL APPROACHING EAST
CENTRAL MN IN THE MORNING...BUT WE THINK MOST OF THESE CLOUDS WILL
HANG JUST NORTH OF THE AIRPORT. A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS CERTAINLY
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AT KMSP IN THE MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KT.
WED...VFR. WIND W/SW 5-10KT.
THU...VFR. WIND S AT 10-15KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...CLF


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