Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 241817
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
117 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO THIS MORNING.
CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ON THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL MN/WI BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AFTER
SUNRISE AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY. CU RULE IS HIGHLY
NEGATIVE NORTH OF I-94 SO MAINTAINED CLOUDY SKIES IN THOSE
LOCATIONS...WITH FEW-SCT CU POSSIBLY DEVELOPING SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE
HELD BACK UNDER THE CLOUDS TO THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S WITH UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

SINCE NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED SINCE YESTERDAY...EXPECTING SIMILAR WIND
GUSTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SHOW POTENTIAL FOR 30 KT GUSTS
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATER THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCH
CLOSER TONIGHT AND WINDS SHOULD EASE QUICKLY BY SUNSET. WITH THE
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED...SHOULD SEE TEMPS FALL A FEW EXTRA DEGREES
WITH 40S COMMON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

THE LONGER TERM TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COOLER AND DRIER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD THROUGH ABOUT MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW WARMING
TREND.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN HAS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH EXITING
SLOWLY TO THE EAST EARLY WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WEST. THIS
LEAVES MINNESOTA IN THE TRANSITION ZONE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...THE WESTERN
MONSOON WILL SPILL SOME MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO
MINNESOTA MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS HAS COME
IN WITH THE SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED AND IS NOW MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE
ECMWF.  IT APPEARS A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...WILL HAVE TO INCREASE POPS INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY. THEREAFTER...WE SHOULD SEE DRIER CONDITIONS MOVING
BACK IN ALONG WITH WARMER CONDITIONS AS HEIGHTS RISE AGAIN AHEAD OF
THE NEXT TROUGH PROGGED INTO THE AREA BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

OVERALL THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL START OUT WITH PLEASANT PRE FALL
CONDITIONS INTO MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK.  DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS LOOK
LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES TO SIT JUST NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...ROTATING THE CLOUDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE CLOUD DECK LITERALLY INTERSECTS THE HEART OF THE TWIN
CITIES...WITH MSP GENERALLY SEEING BROKEN CEILINGS...BUT
OCCASIONALLY SCATTERED. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE CLOUD BASE WILL BE VFR...AROUND 5-6 KFT
SIMILARLY TO YESTERDAY. THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR THE ST. CLOUD
AREA...RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
FOR AREAS EAST...THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART THROUGH
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN EAU CLAIRE. WESTERN MN LOCATIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE WIND ACROSS THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLUSTERY FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WILL
DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING AS THE SUN ANGLE DECREASES.
THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL FINALLY START TO PUSH IN
TOMORROW...MEANING THOSE CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OFF TO OUR EAST...AND
WE WILL HAVE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT A BIT WEAKER THAN TODAY.

KMSP...STRADDLING THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING...BUT OVERNIGHT WE EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO START MOVING
TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE SAME TREND AS YESTERDAY
EVENING...DIMINISHING QUICKLY IN THE EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND W/SW 5-10KT.
THU...VFR. WIND S AT 10-15KT.
FRI...MVFR PSBL. CHC SHRA. WINDS SE 5-10KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...SPD


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