Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 291759

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1159 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.Updated for 18Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 1152 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

The vertically stacked low is centered over the tip of west central
Minnesota early this morning, and it will begin to fill and meander
south and east to reach the southeastern border of the state by
Wednesday morning. As this occurs, the deformation zone of
precipitation will shift into western Minnesota, where 60-80 percent
precip chances have been included for a good portion of today and
tonight. Farther east across central and south central MN,
precipitation will be more scattered in nature, with isolated
activity over west central WI. The infiltration of colder air will
also be sufficient to transition rain and rain/snow over to mainly
snow overnight. We could see around one inch snow accumulation in
west central MN by daybreak Wednesday.

Given the extensive cloud cover and the low overhead, diurnal
warming will be stunted, but readings will still be well above
climatological normal. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s are
expected, with low/mid 30s for lows tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 340 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Very similar forecast in the extended period with high confidence
of above normal temperatures through the week, and into next
weekend. Lower confidence in temperatures past next week, but
there remains the general trend of much colder air beginning to
spill southward across the Canadian Prairies, and into the
Northern Plains next week. How far eastward this much colder air
mass moves in terms of timing and extent remains questionable. The
general consensus remains favorable for temperatures to at least
fall back to near normal the week of December 7th. The coldest air
holds just east of the Rockies, and into the Northern Plains. The
air mass in this area will be 10 to 15 degrees below average next

Forecast concerns deal with a cutoff upper low expected to form in
the desert southwest this weekend, and move slowly eastward.
Although the consensus in the deterministic models favor a more
southern jet stream interaction, vs. the northern stream, I have
doubts based on the ensemble means of both the GEFS/NAEFS.
Confidence remains low on how this will affect the Upper Midwest
the ladder part of the upcoming weekend, and into early next week.
Currently our region should remain mostly dry with the best chance
of widespread precipitation southeast across the Ohio Valley. This
system does need to be watched as it has the potential of
generating lots of unsettled weather including a large swath of snow
on the northwest side of the storm system.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1152 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

MVFR/IFR conditions this afternoon with IFR/LIFR expected tonight
as an area of precipitation rotates through. Forecast soundings
show cold air aloft, which means we can rule out any chance of
freezing rain or sleet. Surface temps will be in the low to mid
30s, which means there is a chance of rain or snow. The intensity
will be light, so not expecting much if any accumulation. Winds
will be light and eventually become northwest by Wednesday

A few light showers/drizzle are possible today, but the better
chance for heavier precipitation will occur later tonight. The
precip should start out as rain, with rain/snow mix possible.
Winds will be southerly, and then go calm overnight as the center
of the low passes overhead, before switching to the northwest
after midnight.

Thu...MVFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Fri...MVFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Sat...VFR with MVFR possible. Wind W at 10 kts




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