Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 150058

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
758 PM CDT FRI OCT 14 2016

.UPDATE...For 00z Aviation Discussion below


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016

Cloudy, breezy conditions can be expected tonight and tomorrow
across the eastern half of Minnesota and in western Wisconsin. The
western half of Minnesota has seen a lot of sunshine this afternoon,
but high clouds will be on the increase over the next few hours and
there is a good chance the low stratus deck will gradually expand
westward tonight.

Strong warm air advection is ongoing across MN/WI this afternoon on
the back of a 40-50kt low level jet. Plenty of moisture is also
being advected northward with the jet. Dewpoints have increased 10-
15 degrees since this morning and will continue to rise overnight.
There is the potential for mist and drizzle late tonight into
Saturday morning. The forecast soundings from the RAP/NAM/GFS and
satellite show a couple distinct cloud layers. There is a moist
layer aloft between 15-20kft which is the result of cirrus clouds
approaching from the mid-upper jet, but also a saturated layer in
the lowest 2-3kft. The soundings are also very dry above this
saturated layer, so if the lift isn`t strong enough to grow
drizzle/rain drops in the lowest 2-3kft, then precipitation won`t
happen until late in the day Saturday when deeper moisture arrives
near the advancing front - along with weak instability. We think
there is enough lift and deep enough moisture for at least patchy
drizzle. The winds will remain breezy overnight and through the day
tomorrow. The low clouds should linger through the day tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016

Very mild temperatures will prevail through early next week,
with a more seasonal temperature pattern beginning Tuesday with
temperatures then trending below normal from Wednesday through
Friday as the flow aloft turns more northerly. Highs Sunday and
Monday will be in the upper 60s to middle 70s and will trend
downward into the upper 40s to middle 50s for Thursday and Friday.

There will be several chances for showers and thunderstorms...mainly
from Sunday night through Monday night as first a warm front lifts
northeast through the area followed by a cold front. The most
concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms will be Sunday
night ahead of the warm front across eastern MN and western WI.

Several parameters are coming together that would suggest a threat
for large hail with some of the storms. As we progress through
Sunday evening, we will come under the influence of the left exit
region of a 100+ knot upper jet. This is combined with WSW H5
winds of 55 knots along with SSW H85 winds of 40 knots. The low
level moisture transport is rather significant along with strong
forcing as an H7 short wave moves through. Likely pops remain in
place for the aforementioned areas along with rain amounts up to
a half inch. Locally higher amounts are certainly possible with
PWAT values progged between 1.35 and 1.50 inches. Once again,
this is above the max moving average from the MPX sounding
climatology. The precipitation chances then increase once again
for Monday afternoon through early Tuesday as the cold front moves

Dry weather along with below normal temperatures will then cover
the area from mid week onward.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 755 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016

Some pockets of scattered to clear skies developed in the stratus
deck late this afternoon, but expect the deck to fill back in this
eve, and then lower as the night progresses. Expect most sites
(with the exception of KAXN) to be MVFR by 03z, with further
degradation to IFR/LIFR around/after 06z. Drizzle and BR is also
expected to develop. The low stratus will likely linger through
Saturday morning, with VFR slowly returning toward 00z as the
front passes. Winds will stay gusty from the south then gradually
veer southwest then west/northwest with the frontal passage

Conditions are expected to deteriorate to MVFR this evening then
IFR overnight with vis restriction due to drizzle and mist. Most
of Saturday will be plagued with the low stratus deck.

Sun...VFR. Chc MVFR with -TSRA late. Wind ESE 5-10 kts.
Mon...VFR. Chc MVFR with -SHRA. Wind Variable around 5 kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind Northwest 7-10 kts.


.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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