Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 251749
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1249 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A VERY POWERFUL JET STREAM /150-170 KTS/ THAT WAS NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT
AND DEEPEN A SFC LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS
SFC LOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WILL
AID IN GUSTY SFC WINDS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL/EC MN AND WC
WI.

INITIAL MILD TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL NOT VARY TOO MUCH TODAY AS
CAA FILTERS SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR A COOL SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY
AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SUNDAY AND MONDAY STILL LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...THE WARMEST DAYS FOR THE REST OF
OCTOBER 2014...AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM DUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ATOP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD WHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. THIS TROUGH
WILL PICK UP A LOW PRES CENTER OVER ALBERTA PROVINCE AND SHIFT IT
EWD. MEANWHILE...A MORE SRN STREAM LOW PRES CENTER FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WILL ALSO BE PICKED UP BY THIS TROUGH...BUT THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT BOTH NRN AND SRN STREAM LOWS AS NOT
PHASING TOGETHER AS THEY SHIFT EWD SUN THRU MON. THIS SCENARIO
WILL MAINTAIN THE THINKING THAT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WEAK
AND LESS WIDESPREAD ACRS THE CWFA. IN FACT...MOST OF THE PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT FOR SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT LOOKS TO BE OVER THE ERN
HALF OF THE CWFA WHERE MOISTURE COLUMNS WILL BE DEEPER. THE SRN
CANADIAN LOW...OVER SRN MANITOBA/ONTARIO BY MIDDAY MON...WILL
PIVOT AS IT IS NUDGED ALONG BY A CUTOFF LOW WITHIN THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...FORCING THE LOW TO BECOME MORE STACKED AND WEAKENING ITS
EFFECTS FOR THE MPX CWFA LATE MONDAY INTO TUE. AGAIN...THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL BE IN ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

THE TROUGH WILL OPEN UP BY EARLY TUE AND BECOME MORE
PROGRESSIVE...BRINGING AN EFFECTIVE END TO THE PRECIP BY LATE DAY
TUE...IF NOT EARLY...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE SYSTEM EJECTS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS...THE AREA WILL GET A MORE
BONA FIDE FEEL OF FALL AS COLDER CANADIAN AIR GETS A PATHWAY DOWN
TO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. PROLONGED NW FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH MODEST CAA SURGES WILL
DROP HIGHS TEMPS FROM THE 60S SUN-MON TO THE 40S AND 50S TUE-FRI.
LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S BY MIDWEEK AND EVEN TO THE 20S BY
LATE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME CONFLICTING IDEAS AS TO WHETHER A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRES WILL DROP SEWD THRU THE REGION AROUND THU...BUT
MOISTURE COLUMNS ARE FAIRLY SHALLOW AND THERE IS LITTLE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WITH ANY SYSTEMS DEPICTED ON THE GFS/GEM. THE
MORNING RUN OF THE ECMWF BECOME HIGHLY MERIDIONAL WITH AN UPPER
LOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND LOOKS TO BE QUITE THE OUTLIER SO
HAS MUCH LESS INFLUENCE ON THIS FCST PKG. THEREFORE...HAVE OPTED
TO RUN WITH A DRY FCST FROM TUE NIGHT ON THRU THE END OF THIS FCST
PKG.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL GO FROM
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WILL RESULT IN WNW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THAT GO LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT BEFORE SETTING UP OUT OF THE SE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
BY THE END OF THE TAF AXN/RWF WILL LIKELY SEE THOSE SE WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 15-20 KTS BY 18Z MON. VFR CONDS WILL
DOMINATE...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL START TO THICKEN BETWEEN 080-120 SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN MN. ANY MVFR CIGS AND PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 00Z MON.

KMSP...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS TAF. WINDS WILL BE LGT AND VRB AS
THEY TRANSITION FROM THE NW TO THE SE BETWEEN 3Z AND 9Z TONIGHT.
MY SUN AFTERNOON...MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS UP AROUND 20 KTS...BUT THE
BETTER WIND GUSTS LOOK TO STAY OFF TO THE WEST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR CIGS LIKELY EARLY. CHC SHRA. WINDS BCMG WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...CHC MVFR/SHRA. WINDS WNW 15G25 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...MPG






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