Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
FXUS63 KDTX 221145
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
745 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017
Very little weather of concern over the next 24 hours with arctic
high pressure and the associated stable, cold dome parked over the
region. Only real tangible cloud issue is lake effect cloud off of
Lake Huron releasing south and west this morning. While abundant dry
air should have no problems in eroding this cloud, did include a
FEW045 group at a few sites. Footprint of surface high is forecasted
to build very aggressive into the terminals during the next 3 hours,
which will also be a detriment to remnant cloud. Otherwise,
seasonably light northerly flow to persist today at less than 10
knots. Variable winds tonight with favorable radiative cooling
setup, and emerging southeasterly flow Thursday.
For DTW...Remnant lake effect cloud is pushing southward into
portions of far eastern southeastern Michigan this morning. Very dry
air mass should limit the cloud from entering immediate DTW air
space. Northerly flow trajectories are expected to hold today.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017
A large arctic high pressure centered just north of Lake Superior
will drift across the state today and off to the east on Thursday.
Northerly winds will decrease somewhat from Tuesday but still remain
around 10 mph putting a bit of a chill in the air. Plenty of
sunshine today as airmass is extremely dry. Lake band of clouds right
along the Lake Huron shoreline will dissipate this morning as
surface flow become more offshore. Highs today will struggle into
the 30s even with a late March sun as 850mb will be around -12c.
Another cold night tonight with strong radiational cooling as skies
will remain clear and winds will go near calm from decoupling under
weak gradient. Will see teens again all locations with pockets of
single digits in colder prone locations. Thursday will see decent
waa above the surface as temps will rise about 10c at 925mb and 850mb
though surface flow will be from a cooler southeast direction.
Mixing during the first part of the day from plenty of sunshine will
help temps rebound into the 40s before increasing high clouds from
approaching storm system spread across the area in the afternoon.
A warm front ahead of a large developing low pressure over the
central plains will lift north through the area Thursday night.
Isentropic ascent ahead of the warm front will spread light
rain, possibly mix with snow at the onset as wet bulbing in very dry
low levels may bring profile below freezing at first. Models still
progged the warm front to lift to central lower Michigan Friday then
stalling. This would bring an end to rain in the south but still
keep showers going across the Saginaw Valley and Thumb. Very warm air
south of the front will produce highs in the low 60s most locations
and possibly mid 60s near the Ohio border as long as the front lifts
far enough north.
The developing low pressure system will quickly close and drift
towards Michigan while gradually filling and weakening. Strong High
pressure across Canada will suppress the front across central lower
Michigan back down to the Ohio border. This will keep the shower
chances going all weekend and into the beginning of next week.
Temperatures will remain mild with highs mostly in the 50s and lows
30s north to 40s south.
Stable arctic high pressure will become parked over the central
Great Lakes today and Thursday. Northerly surface winds will remain
seasonably subdued with a stable near surface environment. Southerly
flow will emerge and then increase late Thursday in response to the
center of surface high pressure building into the Mid Atlantic
Region. Strengthening southwesterly gradient flow will support the
increase in winds particularly for the Lake Huron Basin. Latest
signal from model consensus suggests a high confidence in wind gusts
reaching the 25 to 33 knot range particularly after 00Z-Friday. The
wind forecast becomes more tricky for the weekend as a warm front
will lift into the Great Lakes region before stalling. Specific
forecast becomes low confidence for any one location as the details
remain high dependent on the exact frontal placement. Will say the
pattern appears conducive for a long duration easterly flow event.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for LHZ421-
Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for LCZ460.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for LEZ444.
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