768
FXUS63 KDTX 071804
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
204 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and less humid conditions today.

- Dry and seasonable conditions Tuesday.

- Shower and storm potential returns mid-late week with temperatures
trending above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...

Post frontal stratus has held through the morning and into the
afternoon with MVFR still widespread across the region. Daytime
heating has been able to mix out the last of the IFR and we should
see continued improvement through the afternoon into low VFR. High
pressure building in from the north will help scour out the
remaining clouds this evening with mainly a few/sct cirrus possible
later tonight. Northerly winds will decrease to less than 5 knots
tonight while veering around through the east to become southerly
Tuesday morning.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Thunderstorms are not forecast today into
tonight.

THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling 5000 ft or less this afternoon, then low this
  evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

DISCUSSION...

Slow moving cold frontal boundary still anchored across southern
lower Mi early this morning will vacate the region to the south
through the latter half of the morning. Meaningful post-frontal
advective process effectively establishing an extensive canopy of
low stratus as a sufficiently moist low level environment quickly
saturates. This cloud likely too hold into the early afternoon,
before a secondary southward push of drier air arrives coincident
with increasingly influential daytime mixing in prevailing north
flow. Any lingering shower potential prior to fropa near ths Ohio
border remains of limited coverage. Notably cooler and less humid for
the peak heating period, with sufficient stability to maintain dry
conditions. Onshore flow off lake Huron mutes the diurnal temperature
recovery more significantly across the thumb region, capping highs
in the low to mid 70s. Elsewhere, recovery in temperature toward the
upper 70s/lower 80s anticipated.

High pressure fixated over the northern great lakes will govern
conditions tonight and Tuesday. This ensures a dry and stable
profile holds this period. Despite existing low level easterly flow,
a high degree of insolation potential affords modest modification of
the resident airmass Tuesday. Late day readings peaking in the low
to mid 80s - or right around average.

Generally zonal mid level flow will give way to broad, lower
amplitude troughing during the latter half of the week. This
transition driven by an initial window of modest falls Tuesday night
and Wednesday as minor shortwave energy embedded within the flow
traverses the region. This will draw slightly greater moisture
content into the region starting Wednesday. Typical diurnal boundary
layer destablization with steeper lapse rates gaining greater depth
given slight mid level cooling under the suppressed mid level
height field. Plausible this environment effectively removes any
lingering capping concerns, affording some pockets of free convective
development. Otherwise, reliance on still ill-defined sources of
ascent, likely in the form of lake breeze/outflow interaction and/or
regions of greater differential heating and moisture convergence.
Forecast will continue to outline a generic chance mention targeting
the afternoon and evening hours. Limited wind magnitude within this
pattern precludes a more organized convective risk.

MARINE...

Any lingering showers and thunderstorms early today mainly around
western Lake Erie will exit by midday as drier air increases
influence. Otherwise, post-frontal northerly winds will exist today,
peaking around 20 knots over lake Huron. Dry conditions with
generally light wind and wave action expected tonight and Tuesday as
high pressure establishes control. Turning warmer and more humid
Wednesday and Thursday, offering a favorable underlying environment
for afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm development. Winds
generally remain under 20 knots outside of any storms through this
period.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DRK
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......MR


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